External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

National Bank of Pakistan / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 3Q2026 mainly due to higher operating expenses.</li><li>While on a sequential basis, earnings are expected to decline 6%, mainly due to lower capital gains and FX income.</li><li>Non-interest expenses are likely to increase by 14% YoY to Rs251bn in 3Q26, mainly due to higher marketing costs, increased compensation expenses associated with branch expansion at select banks, and a one-off adjustment at NBP.</li></ul>

Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 3Q2026 mainly due to higher operating expenses.While on a sequential basis, earnings are expected to decline 6%, mainly due to lower capital gains and FX income.Non-interest expenses are likely to increase by 14% YoY to Rs251bn in 3Q26, mainly due to higher marketing costs, increased compensation expenses associated with branch expansion at select banks, and a one-off adjustment at NBP.

Pakistan Banks: Earnings to Decrease 6% QoQ in 3Q2026; Led by Absence of Abnormal Non-Interest Income

<ul><li>As per notice from National Bank (NBP), Federal Constitution Court has ruled in favour of pensioners in the off-shoot pension case, involving a separate class of NBP pensioners seeking adjustment for government-announced pension increases.</li><li>The latest Federal Court ruling, as per Bank’s notice, now extends the benefit to non-petitioners as well.</li><li>For sensitivity purpose, every Rs5bn of additional provision, the incremental after-tax impact would be Rs1.1-1.3/share on earnings.</li></ul>

As per notice from National Bank (NBP), Federal Constitution Court has ruled in favour of pensioners in the off-shoot pension case, involving a separate class of NBP pensioners seeking adjustment for government-announced pension increases.The latest Federal Court ruling, as per Bank’s notice, now extends the benefit to non-petitioners as well.For sensitivity purpose, every Rs5bn of additional provision, the incremental after-tax impact would be Rs1.1-1.3/share on earnings.

Topline Flash Note: National Bank (NBP) - Court Ruling Dismisses NBP’s Appeal in Pension Increase Case; Sensitivity Analysis on Earnings

<ul><li>We reinitiate our coverage on National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) with a BUY rating and June 2027 target price of Rs238/share, implying a capital gain of ~32% and total return of ~46% (incl. dividend yield).</li><li>NBP trades at a 2026E P/E of 5.2x and P/BV of 0.7x, presenting a compelling re-rating opportunity as legacy headwinds dissipate.</li><li>Asset Quality expected to improve further: NPLs declined to Rs223bn in Dec-25 from a high of Rs269bn in Dec-24, with the infection ratio improving to 13.8% from 16.1%.</li></ul>

We reinitiate our coverage on National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) with a BUY rating and June 2027 target price of Rs238/share, implying a capital gain of ~32% and total return of ~46% (incl. dividend yield).NBP trades at a 2026E P/E of 5.2x and P/BV of 0.7x, presenting a compelling re-rating opportunity as legacy headwinds dissipate.Asset Quality expected to improve further: NPLs declined to Rs223bn in Dec-25 from a high of Rs269bn in Dec-24, with the infection ratio improving to 13.8% from 16.1%.

National Bank Of Pakistan (NBP) – From Pension Drag To Capital Strength, Initiate With BUY

<ul><li>National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) held its corporate briefing session today to discuss 2025 financial result and future outlook.</li><li>To recall, NBP’s profitability reached Rs85.9 in 2025 surging by 219.8% YoY (EPS: Rs40.38) as against Rs26.9bn (EPS: Rs12.63) in 2024.</li><li>Regarding the 4Q2025 dividend of Rs35/share amounting to Rs74bn, management clarified that the approval from cabinet is pending and due to current geopolitical and lockdown situation in Islamabad, the cabinet proceedings have faced temporary delays.</li></ul>

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) held its corporate briefing session today to discuss 2025 financial result and future outlook.To recall, NBP’s profitability reached Rs85.9 in 2025 surging by 219.8% YoY (EPS: Rs40.38) as against Rs26.9bn (EPS: Rs12.63) in 2024.Regarding the 4Q2025 dividend of Rs35/share amounting to Rs74bn, management clarified that the approval from cabinet is pending and due to current geopolitical and lockdown situation in Islamabad, the cabinet proceedings have faced temporary delays.

Topline Flash Note: National Bank Of Pakistan (NBP) – Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 2Q2026, due to a higher operating expenses coupled with provision charges in 2Q2026 vs. reversal recorded in SPLY.</li>
<li>On sequential basis, earnings are expected to decrease by 10% mainly due to higher capital gains recorded in 1Q2026 by select banks.</li>
<li>We maintain market weight stance on banking sector where Meezan Bank (MEBL), and Habib Bank (HBL) as our top picks.</li>
</ul>


Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 2Q2026, due to a higher operating expenses coupled with provision charges in 2Q2026 vs. reversal recorded in SPLY.
On sequential basis, earnings are expected to decrease by 10% mainly due to higher capital gains recorded in 1Q2026 by select banks.
We maintain market weight stance on banking sector where Meezan Bank (MEBL), and Habib Bank (HBL) as our top picks.


Pakistan Banks: Earnings to Decrease 10% QoQ in 2Q2026; Led by Absence of Abnormal Capital Gain

Pakistan

National Bank of Pakistan is a government owned bank which provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial, and individual customers throughout Pakistan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP PA)

Pakistan Banks: Earnings to Decrease 6% QoQ in 3Q2026; Led by Absence of Abnormal Non-Interest Income

Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 3Q2026 mainly due to higher operating expenses. While on a sequential...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: National Bank (NBP) - Court Ruling Dismisses NBP’s Appeal in Pension Increase Case; Sensitivity Analysis on Earnings

As per notice from National Bank (NBP), Federal Constitution Court has ruled in favour of pensioners in the off-shoot pension case, involving a...

Topline Securities

National Bank Of Pakistan (NBP) – From Pension Drag To Capital Strength, Initiate With BUY

We reinitiate our coverage on National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) with a BUY rating and June 2027 target price of Rs238/share, implying a capital gain...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: National Bank Of Pakistan (NBP) – Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) held its corporate briefing session today to discuss 2025 financial result and future outlook. To recall, NBP’s...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Banks: Earnings to Decrease 10% QoQ in 2Q2026; Led by Absence of Abnormal Capital Gain

Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 2Q2026, due to a higher operating expenses coupled with provision...

Topline Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)