Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>On the 31 July this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a> (HEG) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0731/2020073101131.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Scheme such that HEG shareholders would receive 1.6 new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7196:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)</a> (HSH) H shares plus HK$1.95 in cash. </p>
<p>HEG's shares were suspended on the 11 December subsequent to its privatisation, with an implied look-through discount for HSH's H shares to the As of  30.4%.</p>
<p>The Hs received by HEG shareholders commenced trading under the code <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a> on the 23 December with a closing discount to the As of 22.1%. It is 21.6% as I type. This is not sustainable. This compares to a basket of liquid H/As of 44%.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>

On the 31 July this year, Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) (HEG) announced a pre-conditional Scheme such that HEG shareholders would receive 1.6 new Haier Smart Home (600690 CH) (HSH) H shares plus HK$1.95 in cash. 
HEG's shares were suspended on the 11 December subsequent to its privatisation, with an implied look-through discount for HSH's H shares to the As of  30.4%.
The Hs received by HEG shareholders commenced trading under the code Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK) on the 23 December with a closing discount to the As of 22.1%. It is 21.6% as I type. This is not sustainable. This compares to a basket of liquid H/As of 44%.
More below the fold.

Haier Smart Homes (6690 HK): H-Shares Trading Tight To A-Shares

Haier Electronics Group Co / Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Yesterday, 99.9% of shareholders present and via proxy <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1209/2020120900740.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">voted for</a> the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a>. Shares will be suspended at the close of trading tomorrow (11 December), with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7196:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)</a>'s H-shares to commence trading on the 23 December.</p>
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<p>More below the fold.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Haier are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Yesterday, 99.9% of shareholders present and via proxy voted for the privatisation of Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK). Shares will be suspended at the close of trading tomorrow (11 December), with Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)'s H-shares to commence trading on the 23 December.



More below the fold.


Preceding my comments on Haier are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.



StubWorld: Last Roll Of The Dice For Haier

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<p>Back on the 19 December 2019, following a brief <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1213/2019121300104.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspension</a> pursuant to the Takeovers Code,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a> (HEG) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1216/2019121600924.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> its parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qingdao-haier-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7196:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)</a> (HSH) was contemplating taking Haier private with newly issued Hong Kong shares, implying HSH was seeking an H-share listing, either first, or concurrent with the share swap.</p>
<p>A little over seven months later, HEG <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0731/2020073101131.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Scheme such that HEG shareholder will receive 1.6 new HSH H shares plus HK$1.95 in cash. A 632-page Application Proof for the listing of HSH H-shares has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0911/2020091100023.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lodged</a>. This will be a <a href="https://en-rules.hkex.com.hk/entiresection/2269" target="_blank" rel="noopener">listing by introduction</a>.</p>
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<p>The pre-condition (HSH's shareholders and CSRC approval) were <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0901/2020090103529.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fulfilled</a> on the 1 September.</p>
<p>The Scheme Document has now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1116/2020111600005.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">despatched</a> - all 1,052 pages of it. The Court Meeting/SGM will be held on the 9 December, with the expected listing of the HSH H shares on the 22 December. The IFA (Somerley) considers the Offer to be fair &amp; reasonable.</p>
<p>The Valuation Advisor (Platinum Advisors) has bumped the mid-point of the Offer Consideration to $38.03, up from $31.51 in late July. That revised assessment covers global peers, SoTPs, and direct comparables. HSH is up 51%/73% since the deal transaction was floated in December, and confirmed in July. HEG is up 62%/36% during the same time frame.</p>
<p>This mid-point assessment is just a valuer's opinion. There is no guarantee this is where the Hs will trade. </p>
<p>And that is the key question: where will the unlisted HSH H-shares trade with respect to the HSH A-shares? </p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
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Back on the 19 December 2019, following a brief suspension pursuant to the Takeovers Code,  Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) (HEG) announced its parent, Haier Smart Home (600690 CH) (HSH) was contemplating taking Haier private with newly issued Hong Kong shares, implying HSH was seeking an H-share listing, either first, or concurrent with the share swap.
A little over seven months later, HEG announced a pre-conditional Scheme such that HEG shareholder will receive 1.6 new HSH H shares plus HK$1.95 in cash. A 632-page Application Proof for the listing of HSH H-shares has been lodged. This will be a listing by introduction.


The pre-condition (HSH's shareholders and CSRC approval) were fulfilled on the 1 September.
The Scheme Document has now been despatched - all 1,052 pages of it. The Court Meeting/SGM will be held on the 9 December, with the expected listing of the HSH H shares on the 22 December. The IFA (Somerley) considers the Offer to be fair &amp; reasonable.
The Valuation Advisor (Platinum Advisors) has bumped the mid-point of the Offer Consideration to $38.03, up from $31.51 in late July. That revised assessment covers global peers, SoTPs, and direct comparables. HSH is up 51%/73% since the deal transaction was floated in December, and confirmed in July. HEG is up 62%/36% during the same time frame.
This mid-point assessment is just a valuer's opinion. There is no guarantee this is where the Hs will trade. 
And that is the key question: where will the unlisted HSH H-shares trade with respect to the HSH A-shares? 
More below the fold.






Haier Electric (1169 HK): The "H-Share" Guessing Game

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in <strong>China, India, Taiwan</strong>, and <strong>South Korea </strong>continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.</p>

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

<p>While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: <strong>Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation</strong></p>

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

China

Haier Smart Home Co. Ltd. manufactures and distributes appliances. The Company produces air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, small household electrical appliances, and other related products. Haier Smart Home markets its products domestically and internationally.

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Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)

Haier Smart Homes (6690 HK): H-Shares Trading Tight To A-Shares

basket of liquid A/Hs trade at 44% discount and one of HSH's closest peers is at 37%. The trade here is to short Hs and go long the As, with a...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Last Roll Of The Dice For Haier

A basket of liquid A/Hs trade at 44%+discount and a close peer is at 35%+. I think ~38-40% discount range is more appropriate. That gives a range...

David Blennerhassett

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Haier Smart Homes (6690 HK): H-Shares Trading Tight To A-Shares

basket of liquid A/Hs trade at 44% discount and one of HSH's closest peers is at 37%. The trade here is to short Hs and go long the As, with a...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Last Roll Of The Dice For Haier

A basket of liquid A/Hs trade at 44%+discount and a close peer is at 35%+. I think ~38-40% discount range is more appropriate. That gives a range...

David Blennerhassett

Haier Electric (1169 HK): The "H-Share" Guessing Game

Haier's look-through ~34% discount (Hs vs As) is tight relative to liquid A/Hs. This looks full and I would not get involved, and would only re...

David Blennerhassett

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research