Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 6 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 14 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash (DASH US)</a> was newly eligible after meeting the profitability criterion, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interactive-brokers-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13335:1" rel="noopener">Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)</a> were overlooked again.</li>
<li>There will be more same-way flow for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> adds and deletes from the Select Sector index trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 6 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 14 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the March rebalance.

DoorDash (DASH US) was newly eligible after meeting the profitability criterion, while AppLovin (APP US), Coinbase Global (COIN US) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) were overlooked again.
There will be more same-way flow for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) adds and deletes from the Select Sector index trackers.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.


[Quiddity Index Feb25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Still the Same Characters

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.


[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> IE considers Paine Schwartz Partners’ A$3.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of its A$2.62-3.28 valuation range. </li>
<li>The scheme requires China SAMR and European Commission approvals. SAMR approval poses a timing risk but the scheduling of the scheme meeting reflects PSP's confidence in securing the approvals.</li>
<li>While not a knockout bid, the profit warning should help sway the retail vote in favour of the scheme. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.1%.</li>
</ul>


The Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) IE considers Paine Schwartz Partners’ A$3.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of its A$2.62-3.28 valuation range. 
The scheme requires China SAMR and European Commission approvals. SAMR approval poses a timing risk but the scheduling of the scheme meeting reflects PSP's confidence in securing the approvals.
While not a knockout bid, the profit warning should help sway the retail vote in favour of the scheme. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.1%.


Costa Group (CGC AU): Wide Spread Ahead of the 30 January Vote

United States

The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. is a natural and organic beverage, snack, specialty food, and personal care products company.  The Company's product line include grocery store foods such as organic cookies, cooking oils, sugar free products, kosher foods, snacks, and frozen foods, as well as organic skin, hair, and body products. Hain Celestial sells and markets in North America and Europe.

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Hain Celestial Group (HAIN US)

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility

There are many changes for the SnP500/400/600 indices in March. The index committee has overlooked high vol stocks. There will be more same-way...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index Feb25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Still the Same Characters

The S&P500 is tough to predict (more often than not) because they pick from two pools, and use discretion. The "usual suspects" from last month are...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

Q1 has a bunch of deals nearing completion. We could see a couple of intra-review changes before the announcement of the March rebal. I expect we...

Travis Lundy

Costa Group (CGC AU): Wide Spread Ahead of the 30 January Vote

While China SAMR approval is an overhang, the scheduling of the vote reflects PSP's confidence in securing the approval. The profit warning should...

Arun George

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