Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Contrary to battery, Chinese renewable energy companies have largely been absent in EU's solar capacity buildup.We believe the main reason is supply chain structure differences;</li>
<li>One year after we tallied the capacity in C2Q23,11% of the tallied capacity have been cancelled, but another 66% more have been added, among which, however,no ingot or polysilicon projects; </li>
<li>Wacker Chemie's 39GW polysilicon project needs to supply ~10GW of ingot and wafer,~13GW of cell and ~52GW of module, comparing to EU's 2023 installation of only 56GW, which is insufficient.</li>
</ul>


Contrary to battery, Chinese renewable energy companies have largely been absent in EU's solar capacity buildup.We believe the main reason is supply chain structure differences;
One year after we tallied the capacity in C2Q23,11% of the tallied capacity have been cancelled, but another 66% more have been added, among which, however,no ingot or polysilicon projects; 
Wacker Chemie's 39GW polysilicon project needs to supply ~10GW of ingot and wafer,~13GW of cell and ~52GW of module, comparing to EU's 2023 installation of only 56GW, which is insufficient.


EU's Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>Contrast to weak EV demand and solar PV inventory correction abroad, domestic renewable capacities have been growing at such a neck-breaking speed that we foresee a utilization drop in 2023;</li>
<li>China’s firm and consistent renewable policy and a unified energy vision have been its strength,</li>
<li>But now have developed a few inconsistencies. Resolution of inconsistency push the sector to higher grounds. </li>
</ul>


Contrast to weak EV demand and solar PV inventory correction abroad, domestic renewable capacities have been growing at such a neck-breaking speed that we foresee a utilization drop in 2023;
China’s firm and consistent renewable policy and a unified energy vision have been its strength,
But now have developed a few inconsistencies. Resolution of inconsistency push the sector to higher grounds. 


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Chinese Renewable Energy Comes to Crossroads

<ul>
<li>Luckin Coffee: Moutai Latte will be a long-term selling product, but shortage of raw materials leads to temporary outage（/）</li>
<li>Sungrow invested TopCon startup posted 2nd highest in energy conversion efficiency（/）</li>
<li>Tencent officially published Hunyuan foundation model at Tencent GDES 2023</li>
</ul>


Luckin Coffee: Moutai Latte will be a long-term selling product, but shortage of raw materials leads to temporary outage（/）
Sungrow invested TopCon startup posted 2nd highest in energy conversion efficiency（/）
Tencent officially published Hunyuan foundation model at Tencent GDES 2023


China TMT Update-Luckin/Tencent/Sungrow/Jolywood/Jinko/Drinda-Moutai Latte/Hunyuan LLM/Sungrowinvest

<ul>
<li>The biggest debate in solar PV technology today is the rapid adoption of N-type solar cells (TopCon), championed by Jinko, vs. the cautious approach... </li>
<li>To prolong the life cycle of the current P-type solar cell (PERC), purposely represented by LONGi; We believe this division is misleading.</li>
<li>LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the old investment logic.</li>
</ul>


The biggest debate in solar PV technology today is the rapid adoption of N-type solar cells (TopCon), championed by Jinko, vs. the cautious approach... 
To prolong the life cycle of the current P-type solar cell (PERC), purposely represented by LONGi; We believe this division is misleading.
LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the old investment logic.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies

<ul>
<li>C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. </li>
<li>We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;</li>
<li>Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.</li>
</ul>


C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. 
We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;
Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

China

Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co., Ltd. manufactures auto parts. The Company develops, produces, and sells plastic interior and exterior auto parts. Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim markets its products to automobile manufacturers.

Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH)

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Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH)

EU's Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

Chinese companies have been absent in building capacity in EU, due to lack of upstream material supply. EU's own capacity building is cautious and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Chinese Renewable Energy Comes to Crossroads

China’s firm and consistent renewable policy and a unified energy vision have been its strength, But now have developed a few inconsistencies.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-Luckin/Tencent/Sungrow/Jolywood/Jinko/Drinda-Moutai Latte/Hunyuan LLM/Sungrowinvest

Luckin Coffee: Moutai Latte shortage of raw materials leads to temporary outage（/）Sungrow invested TopCon startup（/）Tencent officially published...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies

LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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