Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands</li>
<li>Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.</li>
</ul>


Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.
Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands
Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.


Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short interest moved sharply across both directions this week.</li><li>FERG and FTV led a burst of new bearish positioning in industrials, while CRWV and PPLC saw heavy short covering.</li><li>Earnings season drove most of the action, with borrow costs and availability swinging hard around report dates.</li></ul>

Short interest moved sharply across both directions this week.FERG and FTV led a burst of new bearish positioning in industrials, while CRWV and PPLC saw heavy short covering.Earnings season drove most of the action, with borrow costs and availability swinging hard around report dates.

Short Sellers Charge Into Industrials, Exit Tech

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> reported 14% YoY growth in net profit in Q2FY26, on 10% YoY growth in revenue. Declining contribution from North America is adversely affecting margin.</li>
<li>With lenalidomide benefit fading away, DRL’s North America business revenue has become stagnant. During Q2FY26, North America recorded revenue of INR32B, down 13% YoY and 5% QoQ.</li>
<li>NRT portfolio and domestic business cannot be strong revenue and margin drivers. DRL is relying on semaglutide and abatacept as major drivers, which will be reflected not before FY28.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) reported 14% YoY growth in net profit in Q2FY26, on 10% YoY growth in revenue. Declining contribution from North America is adversely affecting margin.
With lenalidomide benefit fading away, DRL’s North America business revenue has become stagnant. During Q2FY26, North America recorded revenue of INR32B, down 13% YoY and 5% QoQ.
NRT portfolio and domestic business cannot be strong revenue and margin drivers. DRL is relying on semaglutide and abatacept as major drivers, which will be reflected not before FY28.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Soft US Performance Drags Margin; New Launches to Bring Respite?

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>First, I sold out of Kenvue (KVUE) when the stock surged earlier this week. We locked in a nice 18% total return. </li><li>Kenvue and its consumer healthcare peers Haleon (HLN), Proctor &amp; Gamble (PG) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL), have all been strong given their defensive nature in a volatile market.</li><li>I still believe that Kenvue (KVUE) is a solid company with 15% upside potential, but I have higher conviction in my other recommendations.</li></ul>

First, I sold out of Kenvue (KVUE) when the stock surged earlier this week. We locked in a nice 18% total return. Kenvue and its consumer healthcare peers Haleon (HLN), Proctor &amp; Gamble (PG) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL), have all been strong given their defensive nature in a volatile market.I still believe that Kenvue (KVUE) is a solid company with 15% upside potential, but I have higher conviction in my other recommendations.

United Kingdom

Haleon is a British multinational consumer healthcare company specializing in everyday health products. The company offers a broad portfolio including oral health products (e.g., Sensodyne, parodontax), pain relief (e.g., Panadol, Advil), vitamins, minerals, and supplements (e.g., Centrum), and respiratory and digestive health solutions. Haleon is headquartered in Weybridge, England, and was established as an independent company on July 18, 2022.

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Haleon (HLN LN)

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Short Sellers Charge Into Industrials, Exit Tech

Short interest moved sharply across both directions this week. FERG and FTV led a burst of new bearish positioning in industrials, while CRWV and...

ORTEX Market Intel

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Soft US Performance Drags Margin; New Launches to Bring Respite?

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories sees 14% YoY profit growth in Q2FY26, but faces challenges with declining North America revenue impacting margins. Future...

Tina Banerjee

Weekly Update (CON, UNTC, KVUE, TSVT)

First, I sold out of Kenvue (KVUE) when the stock surged earlier this week. We locked in a nice 18% total return. Kenvue and its consumer...

Richard Howe

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Short Sellers Charge Into Industrials, Exit Tech

Short interest moved sharply across both directions this week. FERG and FTV led a burst of new bearish positioning in industrials, while CRWV and...

ORTEX Market Intel

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Soft US Performance Drags Margin; New Launches to Bring Respite?

​Dr. Reddy's Laboratories sees 14% YoY profit growth in Q2FY26, but faces challenges with declining North America revenue impacting margins. Future...

Tina Banerjee

Weekly Update (CON, UNTC, KVUE, TSVT)

First, I sold out of Kenvue (KVUE) when the stock surged earlier this week. We locked in a nice 18% total return. Kenvue and its consumer...

Richard Howe

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories sees 14% YoY profit growth in Q2FY26, but faces challenges with declining North America revenue impacting margins. Future...