Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hamamatsu Photonics Kk / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Announced last Friday, FY Sep-25 sales and net profit were in line with guidance, but operating profit fell short. On Monday, the shares dropped 4.5%, wiping out a month's gains.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, management expects three years of sales and profit growth as capex declines, depreciation and R&amp;D level off, and the NKT Photonics acquisition approaches breakeven.</li>
<li>In this scenario, semiconductor, bio-medical, defense and quantum computing applications should drive 3-year sales growth of 24% and a 71% increase in net profit, bringing the P/E down to 20X.</li>
</ul>


Announced last Friday, FY Sep-25 sales and net profit were in line with guidance, but operating profit fell short. On Monday, the shares dropped 4.5%, wiping out a month's gains.
Looking ahead, management expects three years of sales and profit growth as capex declines, depreciation and R&amp;D level off, and the NKT Photonics acquisition approaches breakeven.
In this scenario, semiconductor, bio-medical, defense and quantum computing applications should drive 3-year sales growth of 24% and a 71% increase in net profit, bringing the P/E down to 20X.


Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Capex Peaking, Profits to Rebound

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>MLCC names Taiyo Yuden +22.6% and Murata +17.6% to new highs on bullish comments from Alethia.</li>
<li>Smaller photonic/optical names remain incredibly interesting with QD Laser and Hamamatsu Photonics Kk well below recent highs.</li>
<li>Softbank still -20% from early June highs despite yesterday's +10% move.</li>
</ul>


MLCC names Taiyo Yuden +22.6% and Murata +17.6% to new highs on bullish comments from Alethia.
Smaller photonic/optical names remain incredibly interesting with QD Laser and Hamamatsu Photonics Kk well below recent highs.
Softbank still -20% from early June highs despite yesterday's +10% move.


Japan Morning Connection: Riskier Momentum Trades Back in Play Post SpaceX IPO Nerves

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Volatility continues in both the upside and downside, but no top is signalled yet.</li>
<li>The odds are high for a tradeable bounce in Precious Metals</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Volatility continues in both the upside and downside, but no top is signalled yet.
The odds are high for a tradeable bounce in Precious Metals


<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>The correction in momentum is done as index moves mask the price action underneath</li>
<li>Will the Bank of Japan finally hike rates again ?</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
The correction in momentum is done as index moves mask the price action underneath
Will the Bank of Japan finally hike rates again ?


<ul>
<li>Watch Fujitsu, NEC and OBIC as software likely catches a defensive bid.</li>
<li>Keep an eye on Japan's laser and photonic mid-caps for a lower entry today as markets correct.</li>
<li>Kioxia rose an eye watering +38% over last week so likely to see profit taking creep in for this.</li>
</ul>


Watch Fujitsu, NEC and OBIC as software likely catches a defensive bid.
Keep an eye on Japan's laser and photonic mid-caps for a lower entry today as markets correct.
Kioxia rose an eye watering +38% over last week so likely to see profit taking creep in for this.


Japan Morning Connection: Last Week's Big Winners Face Profit Taking as Iran Talks Fail

Japan

HAMAMATSU PHOTONICS K.K. manufactures electron tubes, semiconductors, and image processors.  The Company's products include photosensitive electronic tubes, optical/image sensors, X-ray related products, laser related products, photodiodes, light-emitting diodes (LED) and video camera used for measuring equipment.

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Hamamatsu Photonics Kk (6965 JP)

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Capex Peaking, Profits to Rebound

High growth in capital spending is ending and depreciation should follow. Growth in R&D and SGA expenses is also scheduled to drop sharply, while...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection: Riskier Momentum Trades Back in Play Post SpaceX IPO Nerves

With Iran deal signed and SpaceX IPO complete, riskier momentum trades are in focus with optical and space names offering entry points after heavy...

Andrew Jackson

Overview #64 – One Small Step for Man

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at a potential cyclical top in bond yields and a tradeable...

Rikki Malik

Overview #61- Back to the Races

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the momentum correction and expectations for what happens next

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: Last Week's Big Winners Face Profit Taking as Iran Talks Fail

Kioxia +38% and Rorze +47% last week with profit taking likely today along with Lasertec and Kokusai after their explosive gains.

Andrew Jackson

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