Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. </li>
<li>The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn't mean what most people think it means.</li>
<li>Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.</li>
</ul>


More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. 
The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn't mean what most people think it means.
Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.


Unloved Japan Roundup: Don't Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Hamamatsu Photonics Kk / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Profits and share price stabilizing after steep declines, although margins still under pressure from rising R&amp;D and depreciation, and costs associated with recent acquisitions.</li>
<li>Sales of medical equipment to recover from post-COVID decline. Semiconductor equipment driven by advanced logic and high-bandwidth memory. Lasers to become fourth major product division.</li>
<li>Buy for the long-term. Risks include Trump tariffs, weak European economies, emergence of Chinese competition.</li>
</ul>


Profits and share price stabilizing after steep declines, although margins still under pressure from rising R&amp;D and depreciation, and costs associated with recent acquisitions.
Sales of medical equipment to recover from post-COVID decline. Semiconductor equipment driven by advanced logic and high-bandwidth memory. Lasers to become fourth major product division.
Buy for the long-term. Risks include Trump tariffs, weak European economies, emergence of Chinese competition.


Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Rebound Ahead

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Up to 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in November. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.</li>
<li>The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names.</li>
</ul>


Up to 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in November. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.
The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> has opened its books for the IPO, and the IPO will raise $753m purely through the sale of shares by the existing shareholders.</li>
<li>Unlike its competitors, Rigaku has a very specialized product portfolio that is entirely focused on X-ray technology which makes the company unique among its competitors. </li>
<li>Our analysis reveals that Rigaku’s IPO is attractively priced compared to its competitors and there is more than 15-20% upside to the indicative IPO price range.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) has opened its books for the IPO, and the IPO will raise $753m purely through the sale of shares by the existing shareholders.
Unlike its competitors, Rigaku has a very specialized product portfolio that is entirely focused on X-ray technology which makes the company unique among its competitors. 
Our analysis reveals that Rigaku’s IPO is attractively priced compared to its competitors and there is more than 15-20% upside to the indicative IPO price range.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Midea Group Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, we looked at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-housing-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43675:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN)</a>, which are two relatively large listings coming up. </li>
<li>Placement were flowing through again this week, across the region.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we looked at Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN), which are two relatively large listings coming up. 
Placement were flowing through again this week, across the region.


ECM Weekly (9th Sep 2024) - Midea, Bajaj Housing, Carote, Western Digital, Challenger, CICT, Premier

Japan

HAMAMATSU PHOTONICS K.K. manufactures electron tubes, semiconductors, and image processors.  The Company's products include photosensitive electronic tubes, optical/image sensors, X-ray related products, laser related products, photodiodes, light-emitting diodes (LED) and video camera used for measuring equipment.

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Hamamatsu Photonics Kk (6965 JP)

Unloved Japan Roundup: Don't Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

Over 40 potential turnaround stocks set to report Q3 results with a 45% spread in estimates, some companies like Rohm and JFE look promising while...

Michael Allen

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Rebound Ahead

Share price bottoming out, sales and profits turned up last quarter. Renewed growth to be driven by medical, semiconductor and laser products....

Scott Foster

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in November. Shorts have increased on nearly all stocks and the...

Brian Freitas

Rigaku IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Rigaku's IPO is attractively priced compared to competitors. The company's specialized product portfolio that is entirely focused on X-ray...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

ECM Weekly (9th Sep 2024) - Midea, Bajaj Housing, Carote, Western Digital, Challenger, CICT, Premier

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Roundup: Don't Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

​Over 40 potential turnaround stocks set to report Q3 results with a 45% spread in estimates, some companies like Rohm and JFE look promising while...

Michael Allen

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Rebound Ahead

Share price bottoming out, sales and profits turned up last quarter. Renewed growth to be driven by medical, semiconductor and laser products....

Scott Foster

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in November. Shorts have increased on nearly all stocks and the...

Brian Freitas

Rigaku IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Rigaku's IPO is attractively priced compared to competitors. The company's specialized product portfolio that is entirely focused on X-ray...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

ECM Weekly (9th Sep 2024) - Midea, Bajaj Housing, Carote, Western Digital, Challenger, CICT, Premier

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Over 40 potential turnaround stocks set to report Q3 results with a 45% spread in estimates, some companies like Rohm and JFE look promising while...