Managing Director, Golden Section Capital

Garreth Elston

Managing Director

Golden Section Equity Research

Golden Section Capital

Golden Section Capital is a private international investment, specialist independent equity research, and corporate finance consulting services provider focussing on real estate and infrastructure. 

Paid for corporate research on Real Estate and Infrastructure companies. Plus independent pieces on various real estate companies and themes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Building upon the positive momentum in April, May was once again a positive month.</li>
<li>All Property Index ended the month up 4.22% in total returns (key to note is that it was the last three trading days that saved Index from a down month).</li>
<li>Overall market sentiment showed cautious optimism, supported by some encouraging company results, but was arguably saved by the SARB's 25 bps interest rate cut injecting a shot of optimism.</li>
</ul>


Building upon the positive momentum in April, May was once again a positive month.
All Property Index ended the month up 4.22% in total returns (key to note is that it was the last three trading days that saved Index from a down month).
Overall market sentiment showed cautious optimism, supported by some encouraging company results, but was arguably saved by the SARB's 25 bps interest rate cut injecting a shot of optimism.


South Africa Listed Property Review - May 2025

<ul>
<li>February proved to be largely directionless for SA listed property, with the J803 All Property Index up a paltry 0.27%.</li>
<li>Macro instability has certainly not aided, and the Government of National Unity not being able to deliver a budget on schedule certainly was not a plus.</li>
<li>Latest Rode research continues to point to the Office sector as having bottomed, and Industrial continues to perform well. While the Clur Index shows that Retail continues to perform soundly.</li>
</ul>


February proved to be largely directionless for SA listed property, with the J803 All Property Index up a paltry 0.27%.
Macro instability has certainly not aided, and the Government of National Unity not being able to deliver a budget on schedule certainly was not a plus.
Latest Rode research continues to point to the Office sector as having bottomed, and Industrial continues to perform well. While the Clur Index shows that Retail continues to perform soundly.


South African Listed Property Review February 2025

<ul>
<li>The South African listed property sector had a positive month in December, capping a robust year of excellent returns.</li>
<li>For 2024 the SA All Property Index rose 28.85%, outperforming the JSE’s all-share index’s +9.37% and the top 40 +6.93%.</li>
<li>South African listed property thoroughly outperformed global listed property, with the EPRA Nareit Global Index’s TR lagging the J803 TR Index by 22.41% in ZAR terms for the year.</li>
</ul>


The South African listed property sector had a positive month in December, capping a robust year of excellent returns.
For 2024 the SA All Property Index rose 28.85%, outperforming the JSE’s all-share index’s +9.37% and the top 40 +6.93%.
South African listed property thoroughly outperformed global listed property, with the EPRA Nareit Global Index’s TR lagging the J803 TR Index by 22.41% in ZAR terms for the year.


SA Listed Property Review – December 2024

<ul>
<li>The South African All Property Index (J803) continued its strong run in August, rising 8.37% for the month.</li>
<li>The All Property Index’s 2024 Total Return is now up 23.91%. </li>
<li>Investor in South African Listed Property are finally reaping the rewards for their patience through a long and difficult down-cycle for the sector.</li>
</ul>


The South African All Property Index (J803) continued its strong run in August, rising 8.37% for the month.
The All Property Index’s 2024 Total Return is now up 23.91%. 
Investor in South African Listed Property are finally reaping the rewards for their patience through a long and difficult down-cycle for the sector.


SA Listed Property and Fund Snapshot - August 2024

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unibail-rodamco-westfield-30ce548a-619c-4f94-9cdc-69d80f811709" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27912:1" rel="noopener">Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW NA)</a> has <a href="https://cdn.urw.com/-/media/Corporate~o~Sites/Unibail-Rodamco-Corporate/Files/Homepage/INVESTORS/Press-Releases/Others/2020/20200916-URW-announces-9Bn-RESET-plan.ashx?revision=" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced a plan</a> to restore financial health, which involves €4.0 Bn of disposals and a massively dilutive €3.5 Bn fully underwritten rights issue to be conducted before year-end.
<ul>
<li>the rights issue is equivalent to c. 83% of the current market cap (it was two-thirds of the market cap pre-announcement)</li>
</ul>
URW is exposed to a highly cyclical and structurally declining retail sector. Moreover, the not-so-new URW's leverage woes have been compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic and fear of rebounds, which has indeed brought along a lower demand from public, affected the ability of tenants to pay rent and accelerated the penetration of eCommerce.
Although URW's portfolio has some of the best European shopping centres, the company has been forced to shed some high quality assets in Europe to reduce leverage. This may weaken future income.
As a result of the current economic downturn, URW has found itself in the wrong place of real estate: retail is lagging other sectors such as industrial, logistics or residential, with implications for index compositions. On a comps basis, URW seems overvalued (18.3x EV/Forward EBITDA vs. 15.5x for comparable companies).
<div>
The rights issue will be massively dilutive, which explains the share price weakness. Institutional holders will subscribe for the new shares, which is the only way they can recover some of the money, and probably not all retail shareholders (up to 49% of shareholders according to Capital IQ) will subscribe the cash call. The size of the issue makes it akin to an IPO, a massive wave of shares coming onto market; hedge funds are positioning for it (please see table further in the insight).
</div>
I recommend a straight short in URW.
Depending on the sources, between 15% and 20.3% of URW's shares are on loan, with up to 16 days to cover.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW NA) has announced a plan to restore financial health, which involves €4.0 Bn of disposals and a massively dilutive €3.5 Bn fully underwritten rights issue to be conducted before year-end.

the rights issue is equivalent to c. 83% of the current market cap (it was two-thirds of the market cap pre-announcement)

URW is exposed to a highly cyclical and structurally declining retail sector. Moreover, the not-so-new URW's leverage woes have been compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic and fear of rebounds, which has indeed brought along a lower demand from public, affected the ability of tenants to pay rent and accelerated the penetration of eCommerce.
Although URW's portfolio has some of the best European shopping centres, the company has been forced to shed some high quality assets in Europe to reduce leverage. This may weaken future income.
As a result of the current economic downturn, URW has found itself in the wrong place of real estate: retail is lagging other sectors such as industrial, logistics or residential, with implications for index compositions. On a comps basis, URW seems overvalued (18.3x EV/Forward EBITDA vs. 15.5x for comparable companies).

The rights issue will be massively dilutive, which explains the share price weakness. Institutional holders will subscribe for the new shares, which is the only way they can recover some of the money, and probably not all retail shareholders (up to 49% of shareholders according to Capital IQ) will subscribe the cash call. The size of the issue makes it akin to an IPO, a massive wave of shares coming onto market; hedge funds are positioning for it (please see table further in the insight).

I recommend a straight short in URW.
Depending on the sources, between 15% and 20.3% of URW's shares are on loan, with up to 16 days to cover.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Looming Rights Issue

United Kingdom

Hammerson plc invests in and develops property. The Company develops, builds, and manages commercial buildings, offices, and shopping centers. Hammerson operates throughout the United Kingdom, but also has investment and development activities in France and Germany.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hammerson (HMSO LN)

South Africa Listed Property Review - May 2025

May saw a positive month for the South African All Property Index, with a 4.22% increase in total returns, thanks in part to a last-minute boost...

Golden Section Capital

South African Listed Property Review February 2025

SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...

Golden Section Capital

SA Listed Property Review – December 2024

The South African listed property sector completed a robust year of excellent returns. For 2024 the SA All Property Index rose +28.85%,...

Golden Section Capital

SA Listed Property and Fund Snapshot - August 2024

South African Listed Property has continued its strong recovery in 2024. August was another strong month seeing the All Property Index rise by 8.37%.

Golden Section Capital

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Looming Rights Issue

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW NA) XXXXX XXXXX

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

South Africa Listed Property Review - May 2025

​May saw a positive month for the South African All Property Index, with a 4.22% increase in total returns, thanks in part to a last-minute boost...

Golden Section Capital

South African Listed Property Review February 2025

​SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...

Golden Section Capital

SA Listed Property Review – December 2024

The South African listed property sector completed a robust year of excellent returns. For 2024 the SA All Property Index rose +28.85%,...

Golden Section Capital

SA Listed Property and Fund Snapshot - August 2024

South African Listed Property has continued its strong recovery in 2024. August was another strong month seeing the All Property Index rise by 8.37%.

Golden Section Capital

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Looming Rights Issue

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW NA) XXXXX XXXXX

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

May saw a positive month for the South African All Property Index, with a 4.22% increase in total returns, thanks in part to a last-minute boost...

SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...