Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI Index has done well in recent weeks, months, but financials are hardly participating</li>
<li>There are vast differences amongst the financial in Korea, not only large Chaebol-like banks</li>
<li>Kakaobank, one of few listed internet banks in the world, is unique with ROA expansion</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI Index has done well in recent weeks, months, but financials are hardly participating
There are vast differences amongst the financial in Korea, not only large Chaebol-like banks
Kakaobank, one of few listed internet banks in the world, is unique with ROA expansion


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.</li>
<li>The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.</li>
<li>The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).</li>
</ul>


We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.
The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.
The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).


Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since the last reshuffle (July 9), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 1.46%. MSCI Asia ex Japan index (MXASJ) has dropped 1.77%. AI infrastructure stocks primarily contributed to the portfolio drawdown.</li>
<li>Focus on AI "picks and shovels" providers, industrials, defense, industrial metals and banks remain. We also like Indian automobiles. We replace Hyundai Engineering and Construction with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.</li>
<li>We are overweight on HK/China, Korea and India. We are underweight Taiwan but overweight Taiwan technology. We are Neutral ASEAN.</li>
</ul>


Since the last reshuffle (July 9), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 1.46%. MSCI Asia ex Japan index (MXASJ) has dropped 1.77%. AI infrastructure stocks primarily contributed to the portfolio drawdown.
Focus on AI "picks and shovels" providers, industrials, defense, industrial metals and banks remain. We also like Indian automobiles. We replace Hyundai Engineering and Construction with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.
We are overweight on HK/China, Korea and India. We are underweight Taiwan but overweight Taiwan technology. We are Neutral ASEAN.


Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed; Minor Changes to the Industrials Sleeve

<ul>
<li>Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.</li>
<li>Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. </li>
<li>Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.</li>
</ul>


Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.
Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. 
Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.


Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

<ul>
<li>On Friday 10 March, Svb Financial (SIVB US) suddenly collapsed, becoming the largest bank to fail in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.</li>
<li>In our view, the collapse of SVB Financial will likely have a negative near-term impact on the Korean banks. </li>
<li>Three ways that this will negatively impact Korean banks include risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean banks, and lower interest rate spreads. </li>
</ul>


On Friday 10 March, Svb Financial (SIVB US) suddenly collapsed, becoming the largest bank to fail in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.
In our view, the collapse of SVB Financial will likely have a negative near-term impact on the Korean banks. 
Three ways that this will negatively impact Korean banks include risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean banks, and lower interest rate spreads. 


Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - Impact on Korean Banks

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

KOSPI Index - Banks Hardly Participating

KOSPI index has done well, but banks are hardly participating. Kakaobank may be most interesting given its ROA expansion and size, while Woori may...

Daniel Tabbush

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed; Minor Changes to the Industrials Sleeve

Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ. Drivers: base metals, industrials, select consumers. Focus stays on AI "picks & shovels", industrial, defense,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing...

Douglas Kim

Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - Impact on Korean Banks

The collapse of SVB Financial will negatively impact Korean banks due to risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KOSPI Index - Banks Hardly Participating

KOSPI index has done well, but banks are hardly participating. Kakaobank may be most interesting given its ROA expansion and size, while Woori may...

Daniel Tabbush

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed; Minor Changes to the Industrials Sleeve

​Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ. Drivers: base metals, industrials, select consumers. Focus stays on AI "picks & shovels", industrial, defense,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing...

Douglas Kim

Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - Impact on Korean Banks

The collapse of SVB Financial will negatively impact Korean banks due to risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean...

Douglas Kim

Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ. Drivers: base metals, industrials, select consumers. Focus stays on AI "picks & shovels", industrial, defense,...