Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong retail sales strongly rebounded 41% yoy in March</li>
<li>During May Day Holiday (Apr 29 – May 3), there was 625k mainland visitors to Hong Kong, around 63% of pre-COVID level</li>
<li>Among all RE sub-sectors, retail and residential will be the first to recover (already seeing recovery), office will be lagging and the last. </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong retail sales strongly rebounded 41% yoy in March
During May Day Holiday (Apr 29 – May 3), there was 625k mainland visitors to Hong Kong, around 63% of pre-COVID level
Among all RE sub-sectors, retail and residential will be the first to recover (already seeing recovery), office will be lagging and the last. 


HK RE: Retail to Benefit from Tourism Recovery.  Buy HLP 101 HK & NWD 17 HK on Attractive Valuation

<ul>
<li>Upcoming banking crisis will accelerate in the coming few weeks, it is very likely Fed will slow down rate hike or re-start a rate cut cycle</li>
<li>To position for this:  BUY Hong Kong property developers New World Development 17 HK, Henderson 12 HK, Sun Hung Kai Properties 16 HK</li>
<li>Apart from HK RE developers, buy China's name Hang Lung (101 HK) and crypto-currency (BTC and ETH)</li>
</ul>


Upcoming banking crisis will accelerate in the coming few weeks, it is very likely Fed will slow down rate hike or re-start a rate cut cycle
To position for this:  BUY Hong Kong property developers New World Development 17 HK, Henderson 12 HK, Sun Hung Kai Properties 16 HK
Apart from HK RE developers, buy China's name Hang Lung (101 HK) and crypto-currency (BTC and ETH)


Short Note: Position for Upcoming Banking Crisis, BUY Hong Kong & China Property Stocks, and BTC/ETH

<ul>
<li>Through operating luxury shopping malls in China, Hang Lung Properties is the only HK-listed stock that provides exposure to the China luxury consumption story.  It is trading at attractive valuation.</li>
<li>Major concerns are 1) leakage of retail sales after re-opening and 2) impact on luxury consumption from negative wealth effect.  Most of the risks are priced in at current valuation.</li>
<li>Short-Term, China consumption will recover post-COVID as consumer sentiment rebounds.  Long-term, the structural story of China consumption remains intact, supported by growing middle class and increasing disposable income and savings.</li>
</ul>


Through operating luxury shopping malls in China, Hang Lung Properties is the only HK-listed stock that provides exposure to the China luxury consumption story.  It is trading at attractive valuation.
Major concerns are 1) leakage of retail sales after re-opening and 2) impact on luxury consumption from negative wealth effect.  Most of the risks are priced in at current valuation.
Short-Term, China consumption will recover post-COVID as consumer sentiment rebounds.  Long-term, the structural story of China consumption remains intact, supported by growing middle class and increasing disposable income and savings.


Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): The Only Play on China Luxury Consumption and at a Macro Sweet Spot

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-mixc-lifestyle-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29285:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tingyi-cayman-islands-holding-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14016:1" rel="noopener">Tingyi Holding</a>.</li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC</a>.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Alibaba Group, Haier Smart Home, Kuaishou Technology, Li Auto, PetroChina, Tencent, JD.com, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services and Tingyi Holding.
The largest outflows will be on SMIC, NetEase, AIA Group, HSBC Holdings, China Construction Bank, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Innovent Biologics, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance and ICBC.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Under revised terms, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp (SMM SP)</a> will issue fewer shares to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel (KEP SP)</a>. It's now a takeover rather than Scheme. Keppel will deliver more shares to shareholders, keeping less.  </li>
<li>Stay cautiously positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> until the stock starts trading as if those who bought on momentum look like they are getting out. </li>
<li>With investors chucking in the towel and the HSI touching a thirteen-year low, it's time for some old-school perspective applying Benjamin Graham's Net Nets</li>
</ul>


Under revised terms, Sembcorp (SMM SP) will issue fewer shares to Keppel (KEP SP). It's now a takeover rather than Scheme. Keppel will deliver more shares to shareholders, keeping less.  
Stay cautiously positive on Socionext (6526 JP) until the stock starts trading as if those who bought on momentum look like they are getting out. 
With investors chucking in the towel and the HSI touching a thirteen-year low, it's time for some old-school perspective applying Benjamin Graham's Net Nets


Last Week In Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Socionext, Jinke Smart, Hitachi Transport, Lifestyle Intl

Hong Kong

Hang Lung Properties is a leading property developer and investor with a diverse portfolio in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company specializes in developing, selling, and leasing premium commercial complexes, including shopping malls and office premises, as well as residential properties. It was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)

HK RE: Retail to Benefit from Tourism Recovery. Buy HLP 101 HK & NWD 17 HK on Attractive Valuation

Latest data show that tourism for HK is recovering. Retail sales also show strong yoy growth. After HK's reopening, retail and residential are...

Jacob Cheng

Short Note: Position for Upcoming Banking Crisis, BUY Hong Kong & China Property Stocks, and BTC/ETH

The coming banking crisis is to accelerate. To position for this, BUY Hong Kong real estate names as they will benefit the most. Pick high beta...

Jacob Cheng