Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Macroeconomics

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates.

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates. 

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by country and by sector, simple averages are hugely misleading.What matters from the perspective of a bank analysis, is how prominently debt-laden companies feature with low levels of interest cover. This is where the analysis can be helpful in considering the outlook for NPL formation and credit costs.<div class="content-highlight"> India stands out in absolute terms, but also in the…</div>

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by country and by sector, simple averages are hugely misleading.What matters from the perspective of a bank analysis, is how prominently debt-laden companies feature with low levels of interest cover. This is where the analysis can be helpful in considering the outlook for NPL formation and credit costs. India stands out in absolute terms, but also in the…

Asia - Interest Coverage Data Is Dire for India, and China

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

<ul><li>China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy.</li><li>Slowing economy together with declining with FX reserves could see RMB come under pressure.</li><li>RMB downside pressure to spillover into other emerging market currencies.</li></ul>

China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy.Slowing economy together with declining with FX reserves could see RMB come under pressure.RMB downside pressure to spillover into other emerging market currencies.

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is penetration. Here we are referring to how accessible banking is to the population, and we measure this by population/bank branches. Where banking is less accessible and limited, there is less competition and a greater ability for banks to charge high prices.This should be reflected in the variance of net interest margins by country. But it is not this simple…

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is penetration. Here we are referring to how accessible banking is to the population, and we measure this by population/bank branches. Where banking is less accessible and limited, there is less competition and a greater ability for banks to charge high prices.This should be reflected in the variance of net interest margins by country. But it is not this simple…

Asia-Pacific: Branch Banking and Profitability

While we tend to focus on impaired loans, a look at credit-risk assets can be revealing.This is especially the case with respect to the rate of change and compared with underlying assets. For instance, if a bank is reporting a sharp rise in its credit risk assets but only a slight rise in loans, this can suggest worsening credit metrics.In practice, this would likely mean deterioration in the probability of default (PD) or loss given default (LGD) of its loans.HSBC’s data is telling, where for…

While we tend to focus on impaired loans, a look at credit-risk assets can be revealing.This is especially the case with respect to the rate of change and compared with underlying assets. For instance, if a bank is reporting a sharp rise in its credit risk assets but only a slight rise in loans, this can suggest worsening credit metrics.In practice, this would likely mean deterioration in the probability of default (PD) or loss given default (LGD) of its loans.HSBC’s data is telling, where for…

A Look at Credit Risk Assets Can Be Revealing

Hong Kong

Hang Seng Bank is a Hong Kong-based banking and financial services company. It offers a comprehensive range of services including retail banking, wealth management, commercial banking, global banking and markets, and private banking, along with Renminbi services. The bank was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)

Market Commentary (June 2016)

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility,...

Asymmetric Payoffs

Asia - Interest Coverage Data Is Dire for India, and China

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by...

Daniel Tabbush

Marketnomix Country Insights - China

China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy. Slowing economy together with declining with FX...

Rajan Govil

Asia-Pacific: Branch Banking and Profitability

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is...

Daniel Tabbush

A Look at Credit Risk Assets Can Be Revealing

While we tend to focus on impaired loans, a look at credit-risk assets can be revealing.This is especially the case with respect to the rate of...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)