HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.</li>
<li>
This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context. </li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.</li>
</ul>



Context:Pop Mart (9992 HK) begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.

This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context. 

Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.


Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

<ul>
<li>
Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.</li>
<li>This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.

Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.


Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for 8 prominent Hong Kong stocks and the benchmark index.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In contrast, Alibaba’s IV remains rich, while Hang Seng Index IV is cheap across the curve, offering attractive hedge entry points.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for 8 prominent Hong Kong stocks and the benchmark index.

Highlights: In contrast, Alibaba’s IV remains rich, while Hang Seng Index IV is cheap across the curve, offering attractive hedge entry points.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: Diverging Signals Across Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK) & The HSI

<ul>
<li>The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.</li>
<li>Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.</li>
<li>The stronger ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.
Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.
The stronger ones are China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

Friday’s sell-off hit China ADRs and pushed implied volatility higher, but not all stocks were affected equally. This Insight details the price...

Gaudenz Schneider

Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: Diverging Signals Across Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK) & The HSI

Volatility cones reveal contrasting signals — Alibaba’s IV stays rich, Tencent trades nearly cheap, and the Hang Seng Index shows low IV,...

Gaudenz Schneider

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

​Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

Friday’s sell-off hit China ADRs and pushed implied volatility higher, but not all stocks were affected equally. This Insight details the price...

Gaudenz Schneider

Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: Diverging Signals Across Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK) & The HSI

Volatility cones reveal contrasting signals — Alibaba’s IV stays rich, Tencent trades nearly cheap, and the Hang Seng Index shows low IV,...

Gaudenz Schneider

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

​3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...