Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets</li>
<li>Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity</li>
<li>China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth</li>
</ul>


Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets
Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity
China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth


2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.</li>
<li>That has led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH INDEX</a> and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.
That has led to Alibaba's weight in the HSI INDEX, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH INDEX and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia</li>
<li>India's rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia
India's rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market


Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a> has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US)</a> ETF. Inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> will take longer.</li>
</ul>



Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.

CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.


CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Third week in a row with declining participation in the rally.</li>
<li>Information technology the hottest sector with all names up more than double digits, all but 2 stocks closing at a 52-week high and median implied vols at 96th percentile.</li>
<li>Single Stock option volume registers the two highest days in the last 3 months but Call trading as a percentage of the total slipped week over week.</li>
</ul>


Third week in a row with declining participation in the rally.
Information technology the hottest sector with all names up more than double digits, all but 2 stocks closing at a 52-week high and median implied vols at 96th percentile.
Single Stock option volume registers the two highest days in the last 3 months but Call trading as a percentage of the total slipped week over week.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 02 – 07): Rally Narrows, Info Tech Hot

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

With the HSI (22,700)and the HSTech index (5,500) hitting resistance levels, we would sell SOME here. We will likely go higher but may not go...

Rikki Malik

Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

The huge rally in Alibaba over the last month will lead to capping in the Hang Seng Indexes in March. We estimate passives need to sell US$1.2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We takea quick tour around China, India and Japan

Rikki Malik

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 02 – 07): Rally Narrows, Info Tech Hot

Participation declines for the third consecutive week, with information technology sector leading the charge. Single stock option volume surges,...

John Ley

2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

With the HSI (22,700)and the HSTech index (5,500) hitting resistance levels, we would sell SOME here. We will likely go higher but may not go...

Rikki Malik

Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

The huge rally in Alibaba over the last month will lead to capping in the Hang Seng Indexes in March. We estimate passives need to sell US$1.2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We takea quick tour around China, India and Japan

Rikki Malik

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

CATL has filed its Application Proof with the HKEX for an H-share listing (https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107127/documents...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 02 – 07): Rally Narrows, Info Tech Hot

Participation declines for the third consecutive week, with information technology sector leading the charge. Single stock option volume surges,...

John Ley