Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">BABA US)</a>will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time. The timing is crucial for options expiries in HK and the US.</li>
<li>
Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Get the expected move and a view of the post-event volatility term structure.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK/ BABA US)will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time. The timing is crucial for options expiries in HK and the US.

Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.

Why Read: Get the expected move and a view of the post-event volatility term structure.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> reported 2Q25 results on 19 Aug, beating expectations. This Insight analyzes price reactions in Hong Kong and two overseas markets.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility dropped sharply post-earnings, both across the term structure and skew.</li>
<li>
Why it matters: With Xiaomi’s implied volatility now at historically cheap levels, investors may find opportunities in long-volatility strategies ahead of the next earnings in November.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi (1810 HK) reported 2Q25 results on 19 Aug, beating expectations. This Insight analyzes price reactions in Hong Kong and two overseas markets.

Highlights: Implied volatility dropped sharply post-earnings, both across the term structure and skew.

Why it matters: With Xiaomi’s implied volatility now at historically cheap levels, investors may find opportunities in long-volatility strategies ahead of the next earnings in November.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Recap & Volatility Dynamics

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time.  In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Recent option trades show a bias towards bullish sentiment. Two strategies using weekly options expiring soon after the earnings announcement are explored.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning ahead of Tencent’s earnings.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK) will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time.  In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.

Highlights: Recent option trades show a bias towards bullish sentiment. Two strategies using weekly options expiring soon after the earnings announcement are explored.

Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning ahead of Tencent’s earnings.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades Ahead of Earnings

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.</li>
<li>At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 - maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX</a>.</li>
</ul>



China Telecom (H) (728 HK), JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.
At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 - maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the HKEX.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in September. However, there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK). 
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng TECH Index aims to represent the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong which have high business exposure to the Innovative Tech Themes.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

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Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View

Alibaba (BABA US // 9988 HK) reports today, 29 Aug pre-open US. US-listed options expiring 29 Aug price a 1-day move of 5.8%, with the ATM...

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Recap & Volatility Dynamics

Xiaomi beats 2Q25 expectations, triggering a drop in implied volatility and highlighting potential opportunities for investors in long-volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades Ahead of Earnings

As Alibaba heads into 29 August earnings, option markets reveal activity from near-term spreads to longer-dated positioning. This Insight unpacks...

Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members

Pop Mart, JD Logistics, China Telecom added to get to 88 index members. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn....

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

No constituent changes, but some large FAF/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% and round-trip trade is US$4bn. Large inflows for...

Brian Freitas

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