Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Northbound connected recorded inflow of USD 2.7bn in May, led by financisl, utilities and energy sector.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili, Longi, and Industrial bank, as well as outflows from CATL, Conch, Haitian, Zijin and Tinci. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Northbound connected recorded inflow of USD 2.7bn in May, led by financisl, utilities and energy sector.
We highlight inflows into CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili, Longi, and Industrial bank, as well as outflows from CATL, Conch, Haitian, Zijin and Tinci. 


Northbound Flows Monthly (May): CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrial, healthcare and consumer discretionary led the inflow while financials led the outflow.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Shenzhen Inovance and Nari Technology that worth investor attention. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrial, healthcare and consumer discretionary led the inflow while financials led the outflow.
We highlight inflows into Shenzhen Inovance and Nari Technology that worth investor attention. 


Northbound Flows: Shenzhen Inovance, Nari Technology

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Qingdao Ainnovation Technology Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ainnovation-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35386:1" rel="noopener">AInnovation Technology (AIT HK)</a> is a fast-growing enterprise AI solutions provider in China. It is set to launch an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$157 million.  </li>
<li>The fundamentals are mixed as diverging growth profiles of key segments, low market share and cash burn are accompanied by a narrowing loss margin. </li>
<li>Overall, we believe the negatives outweigh the positives and we would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



AInnovation Technology (AIT HK) is a fast-growing enterprise AI solutions provider in China. It is set to launch an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$157 million.  
The fundamentals are mixed as diverging growth profiles of key segments, low market share and cash burn are accompanied by a narrowing loss margin. 
Overall, we believe the negatives outweigh the positives and we would give the IPO a pass. 


AInnovation Technology IPO Initiation: Code Amber

SenseTime Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (1475539D HK)</a> is the largest AI software company in Asia as measured by revenue in 2020. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$767 million.  </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sensetime-ipo-initiation-big-brother" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:62104" rel="noopener">SenseTime IPO Initiation: Big Brother</a>, we stated that the negatives outweigh the positives and we would give the IPO a pass. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. Pricing is expected on 10 December with a listing on 17 December.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (1475539D HK) is the largest AI software company in Asia as measured by revenue in 2020. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$767 million.  
In SenseTime IPO Initiation: Big Brother, we stated that the negatives outweigh the positives and we would give the IPO a pass. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. Pricing is expected on 10 December with a listing on 17 December.


China

Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd develops, manufactures and sells video surveillance products.  The Company manufactures video and audio compression card, network hard disk video recorders, video servers, cameras, network storage, and other digital products.

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Hangzhou Hikvision (002415 CH)

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Northbound Flows Monthly (May): CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili

Northbound stock connect recorded inflows of $2.7bn in May. We highlight inflows into CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili, Longi, Industrial bank, as well as...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows: Shenzhen Inovance, Nari Technology

We highlight weekly Hong Kong Connect northbound inflows into Moutai, Yunnan Baiyao, Media Group, Shenzhen Inovance and Nari Technology.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

AInnovation Technology IPO Initiation: Code Amber

AInnovation is set to launch an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$157 million. Overall, we believe the negatives outweigh the positives and we would give...

Arun George

SenseTime IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. Pricing is expected on 10 December with a listing...

Arun George

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