Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we show drivers of LalaTech's +US$1bn turnaround in OpInc</li>
<li>We also evaluate which drivers are likely to generate future improvements</li>
<li>Lalatech won't repeat incredible 2021-23 CoR, OpEx performances, in our view</li>
</ul>


In this insight we show drivers of LalaTech's +US$1bn turnaround in OpInc
We also evaluate which drivers are likely to generate future improvements
Lalatech won't repeat incredible 2021-23 CoR, OpEx performances, in our view


Lalatech IPO: New Filing Shows March From Losses To Profits Between 2021 and 2023

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.</li>
<li>The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.</li>
<li>J&amp;T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. </li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.
The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.
J&amp;T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. 


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023</li>
<li>We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024</li>
<li>Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights</li>
</ul>


In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023
We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024
Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights


Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cainiao-smart-logistics-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115312" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.
In Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115216" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  


China

Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial Co., Ltd. operates as a third-party direct-run real-time logistics service provider. The Company provides intra-city logistics, new retail store distribution, and other services. Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial conducts businesses in China.

SF Intra-City (9699 HK)

Lalatech IPO: New Filing Shows March From Losses To Profits Between 2021 and 2023

We doubt Lalatech will be able to repeat anything like the dramatic improvements in CoR and OpEx the company showed between 2021 and 2023.

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

The shares deposited on CCASS increased significantly from 4.26% of outstanding shares on 11 April to 67.72% on 20 April. The increase of 5,592.8...

Arun George

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

In this insight readers can find a review of ECM and M&A activity in the Asian E-comm logistics space in 2023, plus a preview of potential...

Tracking Traffic

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO...

Arun George