IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.</li>
<li>The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.</li>
<li>J&amp;T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. </li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.
The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.
J&amp;T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. 


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023</li>
<li>We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024</li>
<li>Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights</li>
</ul>


In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023
We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024
Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights


Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cainiao-smart-logistics-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115312" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.
In Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115216" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-updates-tilts-the-balance-positively" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114387" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively</a>. 
</li>
<li>The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively. 

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

China

Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial Co., Ltd. operates as a third-party direct-run real-time logistics service provider. The Company provides intra-city logistics, new retail store distribution, and other services. Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial conducts businesses in China.

SF Intra-City (9699 HK)

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

The shares deposited on CCASS increased significantly from 4.26% of outstanding shares on 11 April to 67.72% on 20 April. The increase of 5,592.8...

Arun George

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

In this insight readers can find a review of ECM and M&A activity in the Asian E-comm logistics space in 2023, plus a preview of potential...

Tracking Traffic

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George