HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CSRC has issued new policies related to stamp duty/IPO/reduction of shares held by listed companies. These new policies may profoundly rewrite the investment logic of the primary and secondary markets.</li>
<li>IPOs may no longer be as attractive to founders. The era of M&amp;A is coming. Investors will prefer companies with positive cash flow, solid commercialization performance, and close to/already breakeven.</li>
<li>In the new context, good stories of high growth alone but with long-term losses may not be effective. We recommend overweight companies with high buybacks/dividend payout, which could eventually outperform.</li>
</ul>


CSRC has issued new policies related to stamp duty/IPO/reduction of shares held by listed companies. These new policies may profoundly rewrite the investment logic of the primary and secondary markets.
IPOs may no longer be as attractive to founders. The era of M&amp;A is coming. Investors will prefer companies with positive cash flow, solid commercialization performance, and close to/already breakeven.
In the new context, good stories of high growth alone but with long-term losses may not be effective. We recommend overweight companies with high buybacks/dividend payout, which could eventually outperform.


CSRC’s IPO Reform and Its Impact on China Healthcare Investment

Equity Bottom-Up

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 23H1, Tigermed’s net profit attributable to shareholders has changed from a negative growth trend in 2022. However, net profit growth brought by its main CRO business was not impressive.</li>
<li>With the reform of domestic new drug approval policies, domestic CRO demand would decrease. Since Tigermed mainly provides early-stage CRO services, it’s more susceptible to negative changes of financing environment.</li>
<li>Tigermed’s performance growth would slow down in 2023. Although valuation is in the bottom range, we recommend investors to take profits in time for any rebound in the stock price.</li>
</ul>


In 23H1, Tigermed’s net profit attributable to shareholders has changed from a negative growth trend in 2022. However, net profit growth brought by its main CRO business was not impressive.
With the reform of domestic new drug approval policies, domestic CRO demand would decrease. Since Tigermed mainly provides early-stage CRO services, it’s more susceptible to negative changes of financing environment.
Tigermed’s performance growth would slow down in 2023. Although valuation is in the bottom range, we recommend investors to take profits in time for any rebound in the stock price.


Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK) 23H1 - Performance Inflection Point Has Not yet Arrived

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This week it is changed from H/A Discount to A/H Premium, by popular demand. Some Northbound data is added. We kept the unicorn.</li>
<li>Last week saw a win/loss ratio of 21:13. Average recommended pair on the week earned 0.9% if Sunday recos executed Monday close, 1.35% if executed Monday VWAP. </li>
<li>6 Unwinds and 3 new trades recommended this week. As always, feedback desired to make this even better.</li>
</ul>


This week it is changed from H/A Discount to A/H Premium, by popular demand. Some Northbound data is added. We kept the unicorn.
Last week saw a win/loss ratio of 21:13. Average recommended pair on the week earned 0.9% if Sunday recos executed Monday close, 1.35% if executed Monday VWAP. 
6 Unwinds and 3 new trades recommended this week. As always, feedback desired to make this even better.


Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (A) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tigermed had high revenue growth in 2022H1 but with a YoY decrease in net profit attributable to the owners of the Company, mainly due to poor performance of investment business.</li>
<li>Tigermed’s investment business is like a "time bomb" that would detonate in the future. Its “CRO+PE/VC business model” would trap its performance in a vicious circle due to unfriendly macro.  </li>
<li>We are conservative about Tigermed’s outlook and performance. Tigermed is difficult to achieve the V-shaped rebound. So we recommend investors to offload, or just do some short term trade.</li>
</ul>


Tigermed had high revenue growth in 2022H1 but with a YoY decrease in net profit attributable to the owners of the Company, mainly due to poor performance of investment business.
Tigermed’s investment business is like a "time bomb" that would detonate in the future. Its “CRO+PE/VC business model” would trap its performance in a vicious circle due to unfriendly macro.  
We are conservative about Tigermed’s outlook and performance. Tigermed is difficult to achieve the V-shaped rebound. So we recommend investors to offload, or just do some short term trade.


Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) 2022H1 - The Time Bomb Is Ticking

<ul>
<li>It seems that Mr Market was not satisfactory with WuXi AppTec’s 2022H1 performance. If excluding COVID-19 projects (which are regarded as a one-time increment), the performance growth was not high.</li>
<li>Considering that the CXO preliminary bid winning has declined largely in the US, domestic CXO would not begin to gradually reflect the slowdown of newly added orders until Q4.</li>
<li>We are concerned about WuXi AppTec's performance in 2023. As an old generation CXO, it's hard to achieve V-shaped rebound. So, 2022 is a good time to offload the Company.</li>
</ul>


It seems that Mr Market was not satisfactory with WuXi AppTec’s 2022H1 performance. If excluding COVID-19 projects (which are regarded as a one-time increment), the performance growth was not high.
Considering that the CXO preliminary bid winning has declined largely in the US, domestic CXO would not begin to gradually reflect the slowdown of newly added orders until Q4.
We are concerned about WuXi AppTec's performance in 2023. As an old generation CXO, it's hard to achieve V-shaped rebound. So, 2022 is a good time to offload the Company.


WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 - The Concerns Behind and the Outlook

China

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.,Ltd. provides professional clinical research services for domestic and foreign pharmaceutical and health-related research and development. The Company's main services include clinical trial technology services, data management, and statistical analysis. Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting offers services worldwide.

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Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting C (3347 HK)

CSRC’s IPO Reform and Its Impact on China Healthcare Investment

CSRC issued new policy related to IPO/reduction of shares, which would rewrite the investment logic of primary/secondary market.Investors need to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK) 23H1 - Performance Inflection Point Has Not yet Arrived

Thanks to the good performance of investment business, Tigermed's net profit growth improved in 23H1. However, decreasing domestic CRO demand and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

The new Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor (this week in A/H Premium rather than H/A Discount), now with Southbound AND Northbound flows. Last week was...

Travis Lundy

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) 2022H1 - The Time Bomb Is Ticking

Tigermed isn't a conventional CXO. Its “CRO + PE/VC business model” will trap its performance in a vicious circle due to unfriendly macro, which is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 - The Concerns Behind and the Outlook

In this insight last year, we expressed our concerns on WuXi AppTec's performance in 2023, when we think could be the performance low point. So,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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