Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a> 2025 revenue dropped 10% YoY as finished drugs witnessed decrease on VBP and NRDL inclusion. Bulk products and license fees compensated to an extent.</li>
<li>Pressure on revenue will continue to be felt. Newly launched products, pipeline strength and out licensing opportunities would help ward off the effects of lower revenues from finished drugs.</li>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical aims to expand into the high-end market to achieve competitive differentiation and thereby command higher prices. We remain bullish on the name.</li>
</ul>



CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) 2025 revenue dropped 10% YoY as finished drugs witnessed decrease on VBP and NRDL inclusion. Bulk products and license fees compensated to an extent.
Pressure on revenue will continue to be felt. Newly launched products, pipeline strength and out licensing opportunities would help ward off the effects of lower revenues from finished drugs.
CSPC Pharmaceutical aims to expand into the high-end market to achieve competitive differentiation and thereby command higher prices. We remain bullish on the name.


CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 2025 Witness VBP Inclusion Impact; Pipeline and Launches Hold Key For Future

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

BioRay Biopharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Once cost control policies and biosimilars VBP continue to be deepened, the growth of established products will decline.BioRay's future hinges on whether it can achieve further innovative leaps beyond biosimilars.</li>
<li>BioRay’s business model distinguishes it from a large number of biotech companies that have not yet turned a profit. So, its valuation method is more similar to traditional pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>Given the concerns on growth outlook and pressure on profit margins, but with stable cash flow/potential for business transformation, valuation of BioRay would be lower than peers Henlius, Hansoh, 3SBio. </li>
</ul>


Once cost control policies and biosimilars VBP continue to be deepened, the growth of established products will decline.BioRay's future hinges on whether it can achieve further innovative leaps beyond biosimilars.
BioRay’s business model distinguishes it from a large number of biotech companies that have not yet turned a profit. So, its valuation method is more similar to traditional pharmaceutical companies.
Given the concerns on growth outlook and pressure on profit margins, but with stable cash flow/potential for business transformation, valuation of BioRay would be lower than peers Henlius, Hansoh, 3SBio. 


Pre-IPO BioRay Biopharmaceutical - The Core Business Is Facing Challenges

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A global index provider will be moving to a new float methodology from the upcoming rebalance in May. That will lead to lower floats for a lot of HK-listed stocks.</li>
<li>Lower float will result in passive selling of over US$5bn across HK-listed stocks. The top 15 sells by notional make up over 75% of the total sell flow.</li>
<li>The largest passive selling is expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1" rel="noopener">Sun Hung Kai Properties</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring</a>. </li>
</ul>


A global index provider will be moving to a new float methodology from the upcoming rebalance in May. That will lead to lower floats for a lot of HK-listed stocks.
Lower float will result in passive selling of over US$5bn across HK-listed stocks. The top 15 sells by notional make up over 75% of the total sell flow.
The largest passive selling is expected in Tencent, China Construction Bank, Bank Of China, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Trip.com Group, BeiGene, Baidu and Nongfu Spring. 


Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Zhongji Innolight   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongji-innolight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6986:1" rel="noopener">Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH),</a> one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Innolight was the global leader in 2024 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH), one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.
Innolight was the global leader in 2024 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Aequitas: Innolight A/H Listing - Early Look - At US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on MEITUAN, BYD Electronic, ALIBABA, CNOOC, HSBC, LI AUTO, CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on MEITUAN, BYD Electronic, ALIBABA, CNOOC, HSBC, LI AUTO, CCB.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Apr): MEITUAN, BYD Electronic, ALIBABA, CNOOC, HSBC, LI AUTO, CCB

China

Hansoh Pharmaceutical is a pharmaceutical company that researches, develops, manufactures, and sells a diverse portfolio of medicines. It focuses on therapeutic areas such as oncology, anti-infectives, central nervous system diseases, metabolic disorders, and autoimmune diseases. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)

CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 2025 Witness VBP Inclusion Impact; Pipeline and Launches Hold Key For Future

CSPC Pharma's 2025 revenue dropped 10% YoY due to finished drugs decline. Focus on new products, pipeline strength, and high-end market expansion...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO BioRay Biopharmaceutical - The Core Business Is Facing Challenges

As cost control policy and biosimilar VBP deepen, BioRay's future success hinges on innovative leaps beyond biosimilars, with a valuation closer...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

A lot of the stocks with expected passive outflows have underperformed the indices over the last couple of weeks. We would look to unwind trades in...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas: Innolight A/H Listing - Early Look - At US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year

Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH), one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.

Sumeet Singh

HSI Index Earning Revision (Apr): MEITUAN, BYD Electronic, ALIBABA, CNOOC, HSBC, LI AUTO, CCB

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Apr 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in MEITUAN, BYD Electronic, ALIBABA, CNOOC, HSBC, LI AUTO, CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 2025 Witness VBP Inclusion Impact; Pipeline and Launches Hold Key For Future

​CSPC Pharma's 2025 revenue dropped 10% YoY due to finished drugs decline. Focus on new products, pipeline strength, and high-end market expansion...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO BioRay Biopharmaceutical - The Core Business Is Facing Challenges

​As cost control policy and biosimilar VBP deepen, BioRay's future success hinges on innovative leaps beyond biosimilars, with a valuation closer...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

A lot of the stocks with expected passive outflows have underperformed the indices over the last couple of weeks. We would look to unwind trades in...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas: Innolight A/H Listing - Early Look - At US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year

Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH), one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.

Sumeet Singh

HSI Index Earning Revision (Apr): MEITUAN, BYD Electronic, ALIBABA, CNOOC, HSBC, LI AUTO, CCB

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Apr 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in MEITUAN, BYD Electronic, ALIBABA, CNOOC, HSBC, LI AUTO, CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSPC Pharma's 2025 revenue dropped 10% YoY due to finished drugs decline. Focus on new products, pipeline strength, and high-end market expansion...

As cost control policy and biosimilar VBP deepen, BioRay's future success hinges on innovative leaps beyond biosimilars, with a valuation closer...