HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The medical insurance fund has crossed certain “warning lines”. Therefore, it is inevitable that the measures to control costs at the expenditure end will be further tightened.</li>
<li>We are actually not optimistic about the NewCo model, because domestic pharmaceutical companies may not necessarily be able to share much of Newco's future development achievements in the end.</li>
<li>BeiGene’s 25Q3 results beat expectations. However, there’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward, this is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation.</li>
</ul>


The medical insurance fund has crossed certain “warning lines”. Therefore, it is inevitable that the measures to control costs at the expenditure end will be further tightened.
We are actually not optimistic about the NewCo model, because domestic pharmaceutical companies may not necessarily be able to share much of Newco's future development achievements in the end.
BeiGene’s 25Q3 results beat expectations. However, there’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward, this is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.9)-Medical Insurance “Warning Lines”, NewCo Model, BeiGene 25Q3 Results

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Innovent Biologics announced strategic global collaboration with Takeda for total deal value of $11.4B. Akeso announced that phase 3 trial evaluating ivonescimab versus tislelizumab in sq-NSCLC met primary endpoint.</li>
<li>Celltrion received FDA approval for two additional pediatric indications for Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma. Classys plans to acquire 77.5% stake in JL Health, South American energy-based aesthetic medical device distribution group. </li>
<li>Syngene plans to add a bioconjugation suite at its commercial biologics facility. Cipla and Eli Lilly agreed to distribute and promote tirzepatide in India under a second brand name, Yurpeak.</li>
</ul>


Innovent Biologics announced strategic global collaboration with Takeda for total deal value of $11.4B. Akeso announced that phase 3 trial evaluating ivonescimab versus tislelizumab in sq-NSCLC met primary endpoint.
Celltrion received FDA approval for two additional pediatric indications for Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma. Classys plans to acquire 77.5% stake in JL Health, South American energy-based aesthetic medical device distribution group. 
Syngene plans to add a bioconjugation suite at its commercial biologics facility. Cipla and Eli Lilly agreed to distribute and promote tirzepatide in India under a second brand name, Yurpeak.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 26) – Innovent, Akeso, Celltrion, Classys, Daiichi, Syngene, Cipla

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The new payload story/ADC-engineering platforms need to be verified by big licensing-out deals. If verification is successful, MNCs will pay high price.However, if verification fails, BlissBio's pipeline would be “ignored”.</li>
<li>BlissBio entered into a wind-down agreement with Eisai for BB-1701.In our view, MNC's interest in BB-1701 is decreasing.The possibility of reaching big BD deal on BB-1712/BB-1705 is also not high.</li>
<li>The investment logic of biotech has changed and high valuation is driven by big licensing-out deals. From this perspective, we think valuation of BlissBio should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


The new payload story/ADC-engineering platforms need to be verified by big licensing-out deals. If verification is successful, MNCs will pay high price.However, if verification fails, BlissBio's pipeline would be “ignored”.
BlissBio entered into a wind-down agreement with Eisai for BB-1701.In our view, MNC's interest in BB-1701 is decreasing.The possibility of reaching big BD deal on BB-1712/BB-1705 is also not high.
The investment logic of biotech has changed and high valuation is driven by big licensing-out deals. From this perspective, we think valuation of BlissBio should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO BlissBio - The Pipeline Has Not yet Been Verified as No Deal Has Been Reached with MNCs

<ul>
<li>Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.</li>
<li>Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.</li>
<li>Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.</li>
</ul>


Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.
Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.
Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seres-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29951:1" rel="noopener">Seres Group (601127 CH)</a>, a Chinese NEV manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Seres Group (SG) is principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and services of new energy vehicles (NEV) as well as core NEV components.</li>
<li>In our previous note we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and likely A/H premium.</li>
</ul>



Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
Seres Group (SG) is principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and services of new energy vehicles (NEV) as well as core NEV components.
In our previous note we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and likely A/H premium.


Seres Group A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

China

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures and sells anti-infectives, anti-neoplastic agents, diabetes drugs, and other products. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.9)-Medical Insurance “Warning Lines”, NewCo Model, BeiGene 25Q3 Results

Cost control measure of medical insurance fund to be tightened.Domestic drug company won't benefit from NewCo model.Despite BeiGene's strong Q3...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 26) – Innovent, Akeso, Celltrion, Classys, Daiichi, Syngene, Cipla

Innovent Biologics announced collaboration with Takeda. FDA approves two additional indications for Celltrion's Humira biosimilar. Syngene is...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO BlissBio - The Pipeline Has Not yet Been Verified as No Deal Has Been Reached with MNCs

BlissBio's success hinges on verifying pipeline through big licensing-out deal, with the risk of being "ignored" if verification fails. Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Hansoh and Leads Biolabs bag global outlicensing deals. Chugai’s partner Lilly announced positive P3 result for orforglipron. Celltrion launched...

Tina Banerjee

Seres Group A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the recent...

Sumeet Singh

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Market Cap (USDm)

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China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.9)-Medical Insurance “Warning Lines”, NewCo Model, BeiGene 25Q3 Results

Cost control measure of ​medical insurance fund to be tightened.Domestic drug company won't benefit from NewCo model.Despite BeiGene's strong Q3...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 26) – Innovent, Akeso, Celltrion, Classys, Daiichi, Syngene, Cipla

Innovent Biologics announced collaboration with Takeda. FDA approves two additional indications for Celltrion's Humira biosimilar. Syngene is...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO BlissBio - The Pipeline Has Not yet Been Verified as No Deal Has Been Reached with MNCs

​BlissBio's success hinges on verifying pipeline through big licensing-out deal, with the risk of being "ignored" if verification fails. Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Hansoh and Leads Biolabs bag global outlicensing deals. Chugai’s partner Lilly announced positive P3 result for orforglipron. Celltrion launched...

Tina Banerjee

Seres Group A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the recent...

Sumeet Singh

Cost control measure of medical insurance fund to be tightened.Domestic drug company won't benefit from NewCo model.Despite BeiGene's strong Q3...

BlissBio's success hinges on verifying pipeline through big licensing-out deal, with the risk of being "ignored" if verification fails. Valuation...