Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI 200 June Review will have a total of 13 float rate changes: 11 increases and 2 reductions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank (323410)</a> will experience the biggest change, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM (011200)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960)</a>. The float rate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdc-hyundai-development-co-engineering-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27397:1" rel="noopener">HDC Hyundai Development (294870)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670)</a> will decrease.</li>
<li>
Kakao Bank and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300)</a> have the most significant passive impact. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960)</a> are also worth noting.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 June Review will have a total of 13 float rate changes: 11 increases and 2 reductions.

Kakao Bank (323410) will experience the biggest change, followed by HMM (011200) and  Krafton Inc (259960). The float rate of HDC Hyundai Development (294870) and Doosan Infracore (042670) will decrease.

Kakao Bank and Kakao Pay (377300) have the most significant passive impact. And LG Corp (003550), Woori Financial Group (316140), and  Krafton Inc (259960) are also worth noting.


KOSPI 200 Constituents with a Float Rate Change: 11 Increases & 2 Reductions

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction (294870 KS)

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction

<ul>
<li>On 28 January, the government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of the construction license for HDC Hyundai Development.</li>
<li>Seoul city government said it will make a decision on the fate of HDC Hyundai Development within six months.</li>
<li>Rather than a complete, permanent cancellation of the company's business license, a more likely scenario is about 6 to 12 months of temporary business operation suspension, in our view. </li>
</ul>


On 28 January, the government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of the construction license for HDC Hyundai Development.
Seoul city government said it will make a decision on the fate of HDC Hyundai Development within six months.
Rather than a complete, permanent cancellation of the company's business license, a more likely scenario is about 6 to 12 months of temporary business operation suspension, in our view. 


HDC Hyundai Development: Permanent Business License Cancellation or Temporary Business Suspension?

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nine constituents will likely face an increase in the float rate: five stocks for the sale of the majority shareholder's shares and four names for the IPO lockup release.</li>
<li>Kakao Bank (6.35x), LG Corp (003550 KS) (2.62x), Krafton (2.09x), and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) (1.74x) are expected to have the most significant impact.</li>
<li>In general, float rate changes show price movement by passive flow similar to new changes (adds/deletes). So, we need to consider gradually building up positions two months before the rebalancing.</li>
</ul>


Nine constituents will likely face an increase in the float rate: five stocks for the sale of the majority shareholder's shares and four names for the IPO lockup release.
Kakao Bank (6.35x), LG Corp (003550 KS) (2.62x), Krafton (2.09x), and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) (1.74x) are expected to have the most significant impact.
In general, float rate changes show price movement by passive flow similar to new changes (adds/deletes). So, we need to consider gradually building up positions two months before the rebalancing.


KOSPI 200 Index Rebalancing: Constituents Subject to Float Rate Increase

<ul>
<li>I sorted out those on KOSPI 200 with a weekly short-selling volume exceeding 10% of last week's total trade volume and a 30-day ADTV of +₩5B.</li>
<li>I further screened those having an increase in the weekly loan balance. As a result, I filtered 23 KOSPI 200 constituents meeting these conditions.</li>
<li>Among the filtered ones, those whose stock price did not drop last week are screened, meaning that the market's expectations for further share price declines are high for these names.</li>
</ul>


I sorted out those on KOSPI 200 with a weekly short-selling volume exceeding 10% of last week's total trade volume and a 30-day ADTV of +₩5B.
I further screened those having an increase in the weekly loan balance. As a result, I filtered 23 KOSPI 200 constituents meeting these conditions.
Among the filtered ones, those whose stock price did not drop last week are screened, meaning that the market's expectations for further share price declines are high for these names.


Short Interest Flow Checkup on KOSPI 200 Constituents

<ul>
<li>We can consider three types of dividend stocks, targeting the March 31 dividend base date: 1. 1Q fiscal year-ending dividends, 2. Interim (quarterly) dividends, 3. REITs regular dividends</li>
<li>The ex-dividend price corrections of fiscal year-ending dividend stocks have been pretty tight recently. In addition, the futures basis has not reached a desirable level either.</li>
<li>So, either outright dividend trading or dividend arb play does not have much trade opening. So, I'd consider setting up a long/short basket trading, by focusing on high DTV ones.</li>
</ul>


We can consider three types of dividend stocks, targeting the March 31 dividend base date: 1. 1Q fiscal year-ending dividends, 2. Interim (quarterly) dividends, 3. REITs regular dividends
The ex-dividend price corrections of fiscal year-ending dividend stocks have been pretty tight recently. In addition, the futures basis has not reached a desirable level either.
So, either outright dividend trading or dividend arb play does not have much trade opening. So, I'd consider setting up a long/short basket trading, by focusing on high DTV ones.


KOSPI/KOSDAQ End-March Dividends: 1Q Fiscal Year-Ending, Interim(Quarterly), & REITs

South Korea

Hanssem Co., Ltd. manufactures kitchen furniture.  The Company's products include kitchen sinks, kitchen cabinets, dining tables and chairs, and kitchen accessories.  Hanssem also designs and manufactures interior products, such as sofas, bedsteads, closets, drawers, lamps, bathroom and office furniture.

Price Gauge
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Hanssem Co Ltd (009240 KS)

KOSPI 200 Constituents with a Float Rate Change: 11 Increases & 2 Reductions

This post summarizes all the KOSPI 200 constituents, which will likely change their respective float rate in the June Review.

Sanghyun Park

HDC Hyundai Development: Permanent Business License Cancellation or Temporary Business Suspension?

On 28 January, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI 200 Index Rebalancing: Constituents Subject to Float Rate Increase

This post investigates those among the KOSPI 200 constituents, which will face an increase in the float rate, thereby attracting a meaningful level...

Sanghyun Park

Short Interest Flow Checkup on KOSPI 200 Constituents

This post checks up the short interests of the KOSPI 200 constituents available for short selling and screens out those with a high potential for a...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI/KOSDAQ End-March Dividends: 1Q Fiscal Year-Ending, Interim(Quarterly), & REITs

This post offers the latest update on the expected dividends and dividend yields of the three types of end-1Q dividend stocks.

Sanghyun Park

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52-week Range

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P/E

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