Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the September data are clear signs of slowing momentum &amp; price moderation</li>
<li>Seasonality, NAM de-stocking, anniversary of Red Sea re-routes all contributing</li>
<li>Without catalysts, we would AVOID holding shares of global container names</li>
</ul>


In the September data are clear signs of slowing momentum &amp; price moderation
Seasonality, NAM de-stocking, anniversary of Red Sea re-routes all contributing
Without catalysts, we would AVOID holding shares of global container names


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: As Momentum Wanes, Best to Avoid Carriers' Shares (October 2024)

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe price momentum for global container carriers is unlikely to improve from here</li>
<li>As price momentum falters, carriers' shares could continue to give back big gains</li>
<li>We would look for near-term opportunities to reduce or eliminate exposure to sector</li>
</ul>


We believe price momentum for global container carriers is unlikely to improve from here
As price momentum falters, carriers' shares could continue to give back big gains
We would look for near-term opportunities to reduce or eliminate exposure to sector


Charts & Context | From Here, What Can Get Better for Container Carriers? | Reduce Sector Exposure

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum in August eased slightly vs July, the first M/M dip since March</li>
<li>In the next two months, seasonality will moderate and Y/Y comps will get tougher</li>
<li>If Q4 momentum wanes, we feel continued strong share performance less likely</li>
</ul>


Price momentum in August eased slightly vs July, the first M/M dip since March
In the next two months, seasonality will moderate and Y/Y comps will get tougher
If Q4 momentum wanes, we feel continued strong share performance less likely


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Strong Price Momentum Likely to Moderate in Q4

<ul>
<li>Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st</li>
<li>But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months</li>
<li>Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they're unlikely to strike</li>
</ul>


Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st
But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months
Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they're unlikely to strike


A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

<ul>
<li>Backed by strong US demand, spot container rates remain very firm</li>
<li>On top of higher average freight rates, carriers now enjoying lower fuel prices</li>
<li>Dispersion of returns on carrier shares is eye-opening, only a few performed</li>
</ul>


Backed by strong US demand, spot container rates remain very firm
On top of higher average freight rates, carriers now enjoying lower fuel prices
Dispersion of returns on carrier shares is eye-opening, only a few performed


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Up | Transpac Volume Up | Fuel Price Down (August 2024)

Germany

Hapag-Lloyd AG operates as a container shipping line company. The Company offers transportation of goods by sea, road, rail, and inland waterway vessels. Hapag-Lloyd serves customers worldwide.

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Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: As Momentum Wanes, Best to Avoid Carriers' Shares (October 2024)

In September's data there are clear signs of sharply slowing momentum in the global container trades. We recommend avoiding shares of the carriers...

Tracking Traffic

Charts & Context | From Here, What Can Get Better for Container Carriers? | Reduce Sector Exposure

We believe container rates will continue to moderate in the near-term, and that in the absence of improving rates investors should look to reduce...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Strong Price Momentum Likely to Moderate in Q4

We believe the strong year-to-date price momentum enjoyed by most container carriers may moderate in Q4, which would make it difficult for some of...

Tracking Traffic

A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

Although workers at US East and Gulf Coast ports could strike in October, for several reasons we believe the impact of a strike will be quite limited.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Up | Transpac Volume Up | Fuel Price Down (August 2024)

Container shipping pricing momentum remained positive in July, and fuel prices have declined markedly over the past month.

Tracking Traffic

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