Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates</li>
<li>Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026</li>
<li>Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector</li>
</ul>


Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates
Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026
Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector


Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September </li>
<li>Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026</li>
<li>Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses</li>
</ul>


Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September 
Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026
Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management</li>
<li>ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers</li>
<li>We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term</li>
</ul>


Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management
ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers
We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term


Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

<ul>
<li>Concerted rate increase on Sept 1 failed, deep sea rates are still falling</li>
<li>Carrier revenues in July-August down ~40% Y/Y, W Coast volumes weak</li>
<li>We retain our -ive view on container shipping, seek opportunities to Short</li>
</ul>


Concerted rate increase on Sept 1 failed, deep sea rates are still falling
Carrier revenues in July-August down ~40% Y/Y, W Coast volumes weak
We retain our -ive view on container shipping, seek opportunities to Short


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Sept 1 Rate Increase Failed, Rates Still Down | September 2025

<ul>
<li>In Q225, Evergreen Marine reported a -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit</li>
<li>That's bad, but our initial read indicates Q325 will likely be far worse</li>
<li>Y/Y, shares still <em>up</em> slightly; we see lots of downside for container carriers</li>
</ul>


In Q225, Evergreen Marine reported a -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit
That's bad, but our initial read indicates Q325 will likely be far worse
Y/Y, shares still up slightly; we see lots of downside for container carriers


Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

Germany

Hapag-Lloyd AG operates as a container shipping line company. The Company offers transportation of goods by sea, road, rail, and inland waterway vessels. Hapag-Lloyd serves customers worldwide.

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Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY)

Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Maersk reported decent Q3 numbers last week, but management's downbeat tone & new guidance that suggests EBIT loss in Q4 should raise alarm bells...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Price momentum and North American inbound demand both remained weak in September, and we believe a new ceasefire raises the likelihood of a Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Despite the rumors floating around in Israel's financial media, we believe a go-private deal for Israeli deep-sea container carrier ZIM is unlikely...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Sept 1 Rate Increase Failed, Rates Still Down | September 2025

August and September data show clearly that deep-sea ocean freight rates remain under downward pressure. We believe Q325 carrier earnings may...

Tracking Traffic

Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

Taiwan's Evergreen Marine reported a steep -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit in Q225, but based on their monthly revenues in July-August, we...

Tracking Traffic

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