External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts led to a 3% volume growth (2% four-year CAGR, HSIE 6%)</li><li>Home care &amp; BPC saw mid-single-digit volume growth while F&amp;R volumes were flat</li><li>Benefits of GM expansion (+255bps YoY) were largely offset by (1) higher A&amp;P spends (2) capability building (restructuring in HFD portfolio) and (3) an increase in royalty rate which limited EBITDAM expansion to 55bps</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts led to a 3% volume growth (2% four-year CAGR, HSIE 6%)Home care &amp; BPC saw mid-single-digit volume growth while F&amp;R volumes were flatBenefits of GM expansion (+255bps YoY) were largely offset by (1) higher A&amp;P spends (2) capability building (restructuring in HFD portfolio) and (3) an increase in royalty rate which limited EBITDAM expansion to 55bpsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, Infosys

<ul><li>Unseasonal rains disrupt sale of summer products, aggregate revenue YoY/four-year CAGR at 6/8%: Our appliances coverage universe is expected to deliver revenue YoY/four-year CAGR (ex-Butterfly/Sunflame acquisition) of 6/8% in Q1FY24 (vs 63/10% in Q1FY23 and 5/11% in Q4FY23)</li><li>The demand environment continues to remain volatile given rating change (fans and RAC), softness in consumer sentiment (largely bottom of the pyramid), and pricing actions</li><li>In addition to this, unseasonal rains during peak summer months disrupted sales of cooling products (room AC, air coolers, fans, etc.)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Unseasonal rains disrupt sale of summer products, aggregate revenue YoY/four-year CAGR at 6/8%: Our appliances coverage universe is expected to deliver revenue YoY/four-year CAGR (ex-Butterfly/Sunflame acquisition) of 6/8% in Q1FY24 (vs 63/10% in Q1FY23 and 5/11% in Q4FY23)The demand environment continues to remain volatile given rating change (fans and RAC), softness in consumer sentiment (largely bottom of the pyramid), and pricing actionsIn addition to this, unseasonal rains during peak summer months disrupted sales of cooling products (room AC, air coolers, fans, etc.)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables - Unseasonal Rains Add to a Volatile Demand Environment

<ul><li>In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&amp;W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15/15% CAGR)</li><li>Electric consumer durable (ECD) and lighting categories were weak at -3%/flat YoY (+7%/flat four-year CAGR)</li><li>Aggregate EBIT (ex-OEM) was up by 9% YoY (9% four-year CAGR) but it was largely driven by C&amp;W, which was up 30/19% YoY/CAGR</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&amp;W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15/15% CAGR)Electric consumer durable (ECD) and lighting categories were weak at -3%/flat YoY (+7%/flat four-year CAGR)Aggregate EBIT (ex-OEM) was up by 9% YoY (9% four-year CAGR) but it was largely driven by C&amp;W, which was up 30/19% YoY/CAGRContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables: Demand a mixed bag comfort on valuation

<ul><li>Titan: While Titan continued to clock healthy revenue growth of INR 103.6bn (up 33%; 4-year CAGR: 21%; HSIE: INR 98.8bn), the margin fell short of expectations</li><li>Jewellery sales (ex-bullion; standalone) grew 23.5% (4-year CAGR: 18.4%) in Q4FY23 as both the number of buyers and ticket sizes aided growth</li><li>Non-jewellery growth of 31% YoY (4-year CAGR: 13%) remained healthy too (in-line)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Titan: While Titan continued to clock healthy revenue growth of INR 103.6bn (up 33%; 4-year CAGR: 21%; HSIE: INR 98.8bn), the margin fell short of expectationsJewellery sales (ex-bullion; standalone) grew 23.5% (4-year CAGR: 18.4%) in Q4FY23 as both the number of buyers and ticket sizes aided growthNon-jewellery growth of 31% YoY (4-year CAGR: 13%) remained healthy too (in-line)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Havells India, Godrej Properties, Petronet LNG, CDSL, Orient Cement

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.</li>
<li>The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6440:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.
The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.
While ABB India Ltd (ABB IN) and Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) and Havells India (HAVL IN).  


India

Havells India is a multinational fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG) company that manufactures and distributes a diverse range of industrial and consumer electrical products. Their offerings include circuit protection devices, cables and wires, motors, fans, modular switches, lighting, home appliances, and air conditioners. The company is headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India, and was founded in 1958.

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Havells India (HAVL IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, Infosys

HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables - Unseasonal Rains Add to a Volatile Demand Environment

The demand environment continues to remain volatile given rating change (fans and RAC), softness in consumer sentiment (largely bottom of the...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables: Demand a mixed bag comfort on valuation

In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Havells India, Godrej Properties, Petronet LNG, CDSL, Orient Cement

Titan: While Titan continued to clock healthy revenue growth of INR 103.6bn (up 33%; 4-year CAGR: 21%; HSIE: INR 98.8bn), the margin fell short of...

HDFC Securities

India Industrials | Riding the Tailwind

India's strong growth projections require deeper analysis. The industrials sector plays a critical role. ABB IN and POLYCAB IN are compelling,...

Pranav Bhavsar

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