External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts led to a 3% volume growth (2% four-year CAGR, HSIE 6%)</li><li>Home care &amp; BPC saw mid-single-digit volume growth while F&amp;R volumes were flat</li><li>Benefits of GM expansion (+255bps YoY) were largely offset by (1) higher A&amp;P spends (2) capability building (restructuring in HFD portfolio) and (3) an increase in royalty rate which limited EBITDAM expansion to 55bps</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts led to a 3% volume growth (2% four-year CAGR, HSIE 6%)Home care &amp; BPC saw mid-single-digit volume growth while F&amp;R volumes were flatBenefits of GM expansion (+255bps YoY) were largely offset by (1) higher A&amp;P spends (2) capability building (restructuring in HFD portfolio) and (3) an increase in royalty rate which limited EBITDAM expansion to 55bpsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, Infosys

<ul><li>Unseasonal rains disrupt sale of summer products, aggregate revenue YoY/four-year CAGR at 6/8%: Our appliances coverage universe is expected to deliver revenue YoY/four-year CAGR (ex-Butterfly/Sunflame acquisition) of 6/8% in Q1FY24 (vs 63/10% in Q1FY23 and 5/11% in Q4FY23)</li><li>The demand environment continues to remain volatile given rating change (fans and RAC), softness in consumer sentiment (largely bottom of the pyramid), and pricing actions</li><li>In addition to this, unseasonal rains during peak summer months disrupted sales of cooling products (room AC, air coolers, fans, etc.)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Unseasonal rains disrupt sale of summer products, aggregate revenue YoY/four-year CAGR at 6/8%: Our appliances coverage universe is expected to deliver revenue YoY/four-year CAGR (ex-Butterfly/Sunflame acquisition) of 6/8% in Q1FY24 (vs 63/10% in Q1FY23 and 5/11% in Q4FY23)The demand environment continues to remain volatile given rating change (fans and RAC), softness in consumer sentiment (largely bottom of the pyramid), and pricing actionsIn addition to this, unseasonal rains during peak summer months disrupted sales of cooling products (room AC, air coolers, fans, etc.)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables - Unseasonal Rains Add to a Volatile Demand Environment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We interacted with the management of Havells India (Havells) and remained confident in healthy growth for its core categories along with improving margin print</li><li>Sustained investments (manufacturing, distribution, marketing, etc.) are maintaining their market competitiveness across categories B-C demand is slow but B-B is largely compensating</li><li>A weak summer season will have its bearing on Lloyd and the fan business in the near term</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We interacted with the management of Havells India (Havells) and remained confident in healthy growth for its core categories along with improving margin printSustained investments (manufacturing, distribution, marketing, etc.) are maintaining their market competitiveness across categories B-C demand is slow but B-B is largely compensatingA weak summer season will have its bearing on Lloyd and the fan business in the near termContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Havells India - Core Remains Healthy Focus on Competitiveness. Maintain ADD

<ul><li>In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&amp;W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15/15% CAGR)</li><li>Electric consumer durable (ECD) and lighting categories were weak at -3%/flat YoY (+7%/flat four-year CAGR)</li><li>Aggregate EBIT (ex-OEM) was up by 9% YoY (9% four-year CAGR) but it was largely driven by C&amp;W, which was up 30/19% YoY/CAGR</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&amp;W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15/15% CAGR)Electric consumer durable (ECD) and lighting categories were weak at -3%/flat YoY (+7%/flat four-year CAGR)Aggregate EBIT (ex-OEM) was up by 9% YoY (9% four-year CAGR) but it was largely driven by C&amp;W, which was up 30/19% YoY/CAGRContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables: Demand a mixed bag comfort on valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NSE Indices have started a market consultation on dropping stocks that are not a part of the Futures &amp; Options segment from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>This will be done in two phases with a weight reduction for non-F&amp;O stocks in June and deletion from the index in September.</li>
<li>That will result in 11 inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September and bring in a lot of flow to the stocks.</li>
</ul>


NSE Indices have started a market consultation on dropping stocks that are not a part of the Futures &amp; Options segment from the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 
This will be done in two phases with a weight reduction for non-F&amp;O stocks in June and deletion from the index in September.
That will result in 11 inclusions to the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September and bring in a lot of flow to the stocks.


NIFTY NEXT 50 Index Market Consultation: Non-F&O Stocks Could Be Dropped

India

Havells India Limited manufactures electrical products. The Company's products include building circuit protection equipment, industrial switchgears, energy meters, cables & wires, modular switches, fans and lighting products.

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Havells India (HAVL IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, Infosys

HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables - Unseasonal Rains Add to a Volatile Demand Environment

The demand environment continues to remain volatile given rating change (fans and RAC), softness in consumer sentiment (largely bottom of the...

HDFC Securities

Havells India - Core Remains Healthy Focus on Competitiveness. Maintain ADD

We interacted with the management of Havells India (Havells) and remained confident in healthy growth for its core categories along with improving...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables: Demand a mixed bag comfort on valuation

In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15...

HDFC Securities

NIFTY NEXT 50 Index Market Consultation: Non-F&O Stocks Could Be Dropped

A market consultation could lead to the deletion of non-F&O stocks from the NIFTY NEXT50 index in September. That means 11 new index members and...

Brian Freitas

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