Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this Insight, we review the recent performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6440:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> </li>
<li>Most companies have performed in line with our expectations, except for Polycab, which has exceeded our performance expectations.</li>
<li>We continue to favour ABB over Siemens (ABB/SIEM), Polycab over Havells (POLYCAB/HAVL)</li>
</ul>


In this Insight, we review the recent performance of ABB India Ltd (ABB IN), Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN), Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) and Havells India (HAVL IN) 
Most companies have performed in line with our expectations, except for Polycab, which has exceeded our performance expectations.
We continue to favour ABB over Siemens (ABB/SIEM), Polycab over Havells (POLYCAB/HAVL)


India Industrials | Quarterly Update - ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13579:1" rel="noopener">Power Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astral-poly-technik-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7890:1" rel="noopener">Astral</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cummins-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7365:1" rel="noopener">Cummins India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supreme-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11443:1" rel="noopener">Supreme Industries</a> have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Power Finance, Astral, IDFC First Bank, Cummins India, HDFC Asset Management, Ashok Leyland, Polycab India and Supreme Industries have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.
The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/r-r-kabel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39810:1" rel="noopener">R R Kabel (2333180Z IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. </li>
<li>R R Kabel is an Indian consumer electrical company, which primarily sells wires, cables and fast moving electrical goods (FMEG). </li>
<li>R R Kabel registered strong earnings growth on the back of growth in the volume of wires and cables sold. However, the lack of commodity hedging affected the firm’s margins.  </li>
</ul>



R R Kabel (2333180Z IN) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. 
R R Kabel is an Indian consumer electrical company, which primarily sells wires, cables and fast moving electrical goods (FMEG). 
R R Kabel registered strong earnings growth on the back of growth in the volume of wires and cables sold. However, the lack of commodity hedging affected the firm’s margins.  


R R Kabel Pre-IPO - Strong Earnings Growth but Competition Seems Stiff

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP INDEX</a> in August.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the PCOMP INDEX in August.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), STAR50 INDEX, the NIFTY family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.
There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

<ul>
<li>Over the last few weeks, companies in India have been disclosing their shareholding pattern as of end-June. There are a few companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next couple of months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>We see 6 stocks where there could be passive inflows and 2 stocks that could have passive outflows - but there are caveats.</li>
</ul>


Over the last few weeks, companies in India have been disclosing their shareholding pattern as of end-June. There are a few companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next couple of months resulting in action from passive trackers.
We see 6 stocks where there could be passive inflows and 2 stocks that could have passive outflows - but there are caveats.


India

Havells India Limited manufactures electrical products. The Company's products include building circuit protection equipment, industrial switchgears, energy meters, cables & wires, modular switches, fans and lighting products.

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Havells India (HAVL IN)

India Industrials | Quarterly Update - ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells

In this analysis, we assess ABB IN, SIEM IN, POLYCAB IN, and HAVL IN. Most are on par with expectations, except Polycab, which exceeded them. Our...

Pranav Bhavsar

India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas

R R Kabel Pre-IPO - Strong Earnings Growth but Competition Seems Stiff

R R Kabel (2333180Z IN) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. R R Kabel registered strong earnings growth on the back of...

Ethan Aw

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

India - Potential Float Changes & Impact

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

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