Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)</a>'s fiscal 4Q2024 earning report last month, we have witnessed an acceleration in near-term earnings estimates downgrades.</li>
<li>Based on near-term momentum indicators, it seems that we are only at the beginning stage of a prolonged period of underperformance.</li>
<li>HCL Technologies currently trades roughly one standard deviation above its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio.</li>
</ul>


Following HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)'s fiscal 4Q2024 earning report last month, we have witnessed an acceleration in near-term earnings estimates downgrades.
Based on near-term momentum indicators, it seems that we are only at the beginning stage of a prolonged period of underperformance.
HCL Technologies currently trades roughly one standard deviation above its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio.


HCL Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>In Q4FY24, HCL-Tech Ltd (HCLT) reported revenue of Rs 28,499 Cr, up 0.2% QoQ which stood below expectations.</li><li>The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 5,018 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 11% on a QoQ basis.</li><li>Below our expectations, the company’s operating margins, too, declined by 40bps to 17.6%, which was largely led by lower services revenue margins and lower contribution from P&amp;P business during the</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q4FY24, HCL-Tech Ltd (HCLT) reported revenue of Rs 28,499 Cr, up 0.2% QoQ which stood below expectations.The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 5,018 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 11% on a QoQ basis.Below our expectations, the company’s operating margins, too, declined by 40bps to 17.6%, which was largely led by lower services revenue margins and lower contribution from P&amp;P business during theContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Technologies - Results Miss Estimates; Skeptical Outlook

<ul><li>Accenture’s Q2FY24 results stood below street expectations on all financial and operational fronts.</li><li>Revenue for the quarter stood at $15.8 Bn, flat in local currency YoY and a decline of 0.1% in US$ terms.</li><li>It registered GAAP EPS of $2.63 for the quarter while adjusted EPS stood at $2.77, reporting 10% YoY growth.</li><li>The company’s new bookings stood at $21.6 Bn, which was its second-highest ever. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Accenture’s Q2FY24 results stood below street expectations on all financial and operational fronts.Revenue for the quarter stood at $15.8 Bn, flat in local currency YoY and a decline of 0.1% in US$ terms.It registered GAAP EPS of $2.63 for the quarter while adjusted EPS stood at $2.77, reporting 10% YoY growth.The company’s new bookings stood at $21.6 Bn, which was its second-highest ever. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Accenture - Uncertainty Persists; Long-Term Demand Continues Strong

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> in deletion zone.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) in deletion zone.
There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> launched an INR170bn (US$2bn) Buyback in mid-November 2023 which is one of the largest Buybacks in India in recent years.</li>
<li>The company has published the Letter of Offer confirming the final details and the expected timeline for this Buyback.</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at these details and their implications for shareholders.</li>
</ul>



Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) launched an INR170bn (US$2bn) Buyback in mid-November 2023 which is one of the largest Buybacks in India in recent years.
The company has published the Letter of Offer confirming the final details and the expected timeline for this Buyback.
Below is a closer look at these details and their implications for shareholders.


Tata Consultancy Services Buyback: Tender Offer Period Opens on 1st Dec

India

HCLTech is a global technology services and consulting company that provides a comprehensive range of software and infrastructure solutions. The company offers IT and business services, engineering and R&D services, and HCLSoftware products, focusing on digital, cloud, AI, and engineering solutions to help enterprises transform their businesses. HCLTech is headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India, and was spun out in 1991.

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HCLTech (HCLT IN)

HCL Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals

In this insight, we perform a technical analysis of HCL Technologies by looking at earnings forecast revision trends, momentum indicators, and...

Wium Malan, CFA

HCL Technologies - Results Miss Estimates; Skeptical Outlook

In Q4FY24, HCL-Tech Ltd (HCLT) reported revenue of Rs 28,499 Cr, up 0.2% QoQ which stood below expectations. The company’s operating profit stood...

Axis Direct

Accenture - Uncertainty Persists; Long-Term Demand Continues Strong

Accenture’s Q2FY24 results stood below street expectations on all financial and operational fronts. Revenue for the quarter stood at $15.8 Bn, flat...

Axis Direct

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

Wipro is a potential deletion from the SENSEX in June. Adani Enterprises is in pole position, just ahead of Coal India. Passives need to trade over...

Brian Freitas

Tata Consultancy Services Buyback: Tender Offer Period Opens on 1st Dec

The Tender Offer Period closes on 7th December 2023. The Tender Offer Price is INR4,150/share. The current share price is around INR3,514. The...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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