Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).</li>
<li>Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).
Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>HCLT has reported a beat vs our and consensus estimates on both revenue and margin fronts in Q2FY25.</li><li>Discretionary spends picked up in BFSI and technology services.</li><li>Management commentary was upbeat on near-term demand with a qualification that macro and geopolitical uncertainties could still impact discretionary spends negatively.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCLT has reported a beat vs our and consensus estimates on both revenue and margin fronts in Q2FY25.Discretionary spends picked up in BFSI and technology services.Management commentary was upbeat on near-term demand with a qualification that macro and geopolitical uncertainties could still impact discretionary spends negatively.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Technologies - Upbeat on Near-Term Demand, Cautious on Long Term

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HCLT reported overall strong results in Q2 with revenue, EBIT &amp; PAT coming ahead of our &amp; consensus estimates.</li><li>Revenue came at US$3.44 bn, up 1.6% QoQ CC (PLe 1.1% QoQ CC &amp; consensus est. 0.6% QoQ CC).</li><li>IT Services, ER&amp;D &amp; Software business grew by 1.8%, 1.1% &amp; 1.4% QoQ CC respectively. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCLT reported overall strong results in Q2 with revenue, EBIT &amp; PAT coming ahead of our &amp; consensus estimates.Revenue came at US$3.44 bn, up 1.6% QoQ CC (PLe 1.1% QoQ CC &amp; consensus est. 0.6% QoQ CC).IT Services, ER&amp;D &amp; Software business grew by 1.8%, 1.1% &amp; 1.4% QoQ CC respectively. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Technologies - Strong Performance, but Painted Blurry Outlook

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Sharekhan

Sharekhan

Sharekhan is India's leading broking house providing services from easy online trading, research to wide array of financial products. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HCL Tech reported revenue of $3,445 million, up 1.6% q-o-q/6.2 % y-o-y in CC terms, beating our estimates of 0.6% q-o-q growth in CC.</li><li>EBIT margin expanded by 150 bps q-o-q to 18.6%, beating estimates of 17.9%, aided by strong operational execution.</li><li>New deal wins TCVs stood at $ 2,218 million, up 13% q-o-q/down 44%, in line with expectations.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Tech reported revenue of $3,445 million, up 1.6% q-o-q/6.2 % y-o-y in CC terms, beating our estimates of 0.6% q-o-q growth in CC.EBIT margin expanded by 150 bps q-o-q to 18.6%, beating estimates of 17.9%, aided by strong operational execution.New deal wins TCVs stood at $ 2,218 million, up 13% q-o-q/down 44%, in line with expectations.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Technologies Ltd - Strong Q2, Maintain Buy

India

HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services.  The Group's technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.

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HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

There could be 16 constituent changes in December. one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn...

Brian Freitas

HCL Technologies - Upbeat on Near-Term Demand, Cautious on Long Term

HCLT has reported a beat vs our and consensus estimates on both revenue and margin fronts in Q2FY25. Discretionary spends picked up in BFSI and...

ICICI Securities Limited

HCL Technologies - Strong Performance, but Painted Blurry Outlook

Revenue came at US$3.44 bn, up 1.6% QoQ CC (PLe 1.1% QoQ CC & consensus est. 0.6% QoQ CC). IT Services, ER&D & Software business grew by 1.8%, 1.1%...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

HCL Technologies Ltd - Strong Q2, Maintain Buy

HCL Tech reported revenue of $3,445 million, up 1.6% q-o-q/6.2 % y-o-y in CC terms, beating our estimates of 0.6% q-o-q growth in CC.

Sharekhan

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