Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively</li>
<li>Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215


Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Infosys: Infosys’ (INFO) strong deal wins (highest-ever) were offset by sluggishness in volumes and a slower pace of conversion resulting in cuts to our FY25E growth estimates</li><li>While Q2 revenue performance was higher than estimated on certain one-offs and margin expansion was in line, successive quarters of growth guidance cuts reflect near-term uncertainty/pressure on discretionary</li><li>Notwithstanding the weak/washout growth in FY24E, FY25E trajectory is expected to improve, supported by visibility from several mega deal wins i.e</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Infosys: Infosys’ (INFO) strong deal wins (highest-ever) were offset by sluggishness in volumes and a slower pace of conversion resulting in cuts to our FY25E growth estimatesWhile Q2 revenue performance was higher than estimated on certain one-offs and margin expansion was in line, successive quarters of growth guidance cuts reflect near-term uncertainty/pressure on discretionaryNotwithstanding the weak/washout growth in FY24E, FY25E trajectory is expected to improve, supported by visibility from several mega deal wins i.eContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, HCL Technologies

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q2FY24, HCL Tech Ltd (HCLT) reported revenue of Rs 26,672 Cr, down 1.4% QoQ and stood below our expectations.</li>
<li>The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 4,934 Cr, reporting a growth of 7% on a QoQ basis.</li>
<li>Beating our expectations, the company’s operating margins, too, expanded by 154bps to 18%, which was largely led by lower operating expenses and lower onsite expenses during the quarter.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


In Q2FY24, HCL Tech Ltd (HCLT) reported revenue of Rs 26,672 Cr, down 1.4% QoQ and stood below our expectations.
The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 4,934 Cr, reporting a growth of 7% on a QoQ basis.
Beating our expectations, the company’s operating margins, too, expanded by 154bps to 18%, which was largely led by lower operating expenses and lower onsite expenses during the quarter.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Tech Ltd. - Better Results with Strong Deals Albeit With Lower Guidance

<ul><li>The big news is that not much has changed in the past few months</li><li>Most of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows, the supply-side factors remain favourable, supporting operational resilience despite soft growth</li><li>In Q2FY24, the IT sector is expected to deliver a soft quarter, although Q2 has historically been a seasonally strong quarter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The big news is that not much has changed in the past few monthsMost of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows, the supply-side factors remain favourable, supporting operational resilience despite soft growthIn Q2FY24, the IT sector is expected to deliver a soft quarter, although Q2 has historically been a seasonally strong quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services.  The Group's technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, HCL Technologies

Infosys’ (INFO) strong deal wins (highest-ever) were offset by sluggishness in volumes and a slower pace of conversion resulting in cuts to our...

HDFC Securities

HCL Tech Ltd. - Better Results with Strong Deals Albeit With Lower Guidance

In Q2FY24, HCL Tech Ltd (HCLT) reported revenue of Rs 26,672 Cr, down 1.4% QoQ and stood below our expectations. The company’s operating profit...

Axis Direct

IT Sector - Soft Q2, Status Quo Remains

Most of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, HCL Technologies

Infosys’ (INFO) strong deal wins (highest-ever) were offset by sluggishness in volumes and a slower pace of conversion resulting in cuts to our...

HDFC Securities

HCL Tech Ltd. - Better Results with Strong Deals Albeit With Lower Guidance

In Q2FY24, HCL Tech Ltd (HCLT) reported revenue of Rs 26,672 Cr, down 1.4% QoQ and stood below our expectations. The company’s operating profit...

Axis Direct

IT Sector - Soft Q2, Status Quo Remains

Most of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows

HDFC Securities

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...