Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coforge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8639:1" rel="noopener">Coforge (COFORGE IN)</a> .</li>
<li>Baring has been paring down its stake since 2020 and hence, the selldown is somewhat well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in Coforge (COFORGE IN) .
Baring has been paring down its stake since 2020 and hence, the selldown is somewhat well flagged.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.


Coforge Placement - US$900m Cleanup, Well Flagged but the Stock Is Toppish

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We hosted the ISG index call (link) and the key message was recovery in the business environment ahead</li><li>While ISG maintained the CY23 outlook on growth in managed services deal bookings (+5% for CY23), recovery ahead is based on (1) improving pipeline for new scope projects (vs renewals &amp; extension heavy recently that drove vendor consolidation) (2) approval threshold for projects and transition timelines normalising with stable pricing environment (3) pipeline build-up for SIs with increased enterprise interest in captives and (4) stability to return in BFSI, which was impacted by executive movement earlier in enterprises</li><li>The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary services</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted the ISG index call (link) and the key message was recovery in the business environment aheadWhile ISG maintained the CY23 outlook on growth in managed services deal bookings (+5% for CY23), recovery ahead is based on (1) improving pipeline for new scope projects (vs renewals &amp; extension heavy recently that drove vendor consolidation) (2) approval threshold for projects and transition timelines normalising with stable pricing environment (3) pipeline build-up for SIs with increased enterprise interest in captives and (4) stability to return in BFSI, which was impacted by executive movement earlier in enterprisesThe current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary servicesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Tata Consultancy Services: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) delivered a soft (in-line) performance in Q1 but recorded strong deal bookings which provide visibility despite challenging macros</li><li>Flat sequential revenue growth was impacted by broad-based weakness across verticals—BFSI, Communication &amp; Media, Technology &amp; Services (46% of revenue declining 1% QoQ)—while the remaining business grew 1.6% QoQ</li><li>Greater scrutiny of projects is leading to the relative weakness in sub-segments of mortgage, capital market and P&amp;C insurance within BFSI and in the Communication &amp; Media vertical</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tata Consultancy Services: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) delivered a soft (in-line) performance in Q1 but recorded strong deal bookings which provide visibility despite challenging macrosFlat sequential revenue growth was impacted by broad-based weakness across verticals—BFSI, Communication &amp; Media, Technology &amp; Services (46% of revenue declining 1% QoQ)—while the remaining business grew 1.6% QoQGreater scrutiny of projects is leading to the relative weakness in sub-segments of mortgage, capital market and P&amp;C insurance within BFSI and in the Communication &amp; Media verticalContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily : Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies

India

HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services.  The Group's technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.

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HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Coforge Placement - US$900m Cleanup, Well Flagged but the Stock Is Toppish

Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in Coforge (COFORGE IN) . In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics...

Sumeet Singh

IT Sector Update: Recovery ahead

The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary service

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily : Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) delivered a soft (in-line) performance in Q1 but recorded strong deal bookings which provide visibility despite...

HDFC Securities

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