Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We are starting a new series of insights called "Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly."
</li>
<li>The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.</li>
<li>The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.</li>
</ul>


We are starting a new series of insights called "Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly."

The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.
The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.


Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)

<ul>
<li>The three risk-off signals include the decline in the Bitcoin price, decline in the copper price, and the first day share price performances of recent Korean IPOs.</li>
<li>These three risk-off signals are offset by one major risk-on signal which includes the U.S. Junk Bond-Treasury Yield spread. </li>
<li>An important risk-off signal is the first day share price performances of major Korean IPOs after listing. We have started to see some weakness on this signal in July. </li>
</ul>


The three risk-off signals include the decline in the Bitcoin price, decline in the copper price, and the first day share price performances of recent Korean IPOs.
These three risk-off signals are offset by one major risk-on signal which includes the U.S. Junk Bond-Treasury Yield spread. 
An important risk-off signal is the first day share price performances of major Korean IPOs after listing. We have started to see some weakness on this signal in July. 


Three Risk-Off Signals Offset by One Risk-On Signal?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chung Mong-Joon is gifting a 3.54% stake in HD Hyundai to his eldest son HD Hyundai Chairman Chung Ki-Sung which will raise his stake in HD Hyundai to 9.67%.</li>
<li>A 3.54% stake is worth 584 billion won. The gift tax payable by Chairman Chung is estimated to be around 350 billion won.</li>
<li>My base case NAV valuation of HD Hyundai is market cap of 22.6 trillion won or target price of 285,557 won per share which represents 37% higher than current price.</li>
</ul>


Chung Mong-Joon is gifting a 3.54% stake in HD Hyundai to his eldest son HD Hyundai Chairman Chung Ki-Sung which will raise his stake in HD Hyundai to 9.67%.
A 3.54% stake is worth 584 billion won. The gift tax payable by Chairman Chung is estimated to be around 350 billion won.
My base case NAV valuation of HD Hyundai is market cap of 22.6 trillion won or target price of 285,557 won per share which represents 37% higher than current price.


HD Hyundai: Chung Ki-Sung To Receive Additional 3.5% Stake from Dad + Updated NAV Valuation Analysis

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-South Korea in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Samsung Electronics, HANKOOK TIRE &amp; TECHNOLOGY, DB INSURANCE, LG Display, SK Hynix, KAL, SKSQUARE, LG Chem.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-South Korea in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Samsung Electronics, HANKOOK TIRE &amp; TECHNOLOGY, DB INSURANCE, LG Display, SK Hynix, KAL, SKSQUARE, LG Chem.


MS-South Korea Index Earning Revision (Jun): Samsung Electronics, HANKOOK TIRE & TECHNOLOGY, KAL

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The annual rebalance of the Korea Value-Up Index will take place at the close of trading on 11 June. There are 20 adds and 19 deletes for the index.</li>
<li>There will be big capping flows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>, leading to one-way turnover of 30% and a round-trip trade of US$1.4bn.</li>
<li>Industrials stocks gain 8 index spots while Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks are net losers with 5 and 3 spots lost respectively.</li>
</ul>


The annual rebalance of the Korea Value-Up Index will take place at the close of trading on 11 June. There are 20 adds and 19 deletes for the index.
There will be big capping flows for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS), leading to one-way turnover of 30% and a round-trip trade of US$1.4bn.
Industrials stocks gain 8 index spots while Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks are net losers with 5 and 3 spots lost respectively.


Korea Value-Up Index Rebalance: US$1.4bn Round-Trip Trade Tomorrow

South Korea

HD Hyundai Marine Solution Co., Ltd. operates as a engineering service company. The Company provides maintenance and other related services. HD Hyundai Marine Solution also offers ecological friendly solution development, smart solution utilizing information and communications technology, and power plant services.

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HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS)

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)

We are starting a new series of insights called "Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly." Main purpose of them is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that...

Douglas Kim

Three Risk-Off Signals Offset by One Risk-On Signal?

The three risk-off signals include the decline in Bitcoin price, decline in the copper price, and the first day share price performances of recent...

Douglas Kim

HD Hyundai: Chung Ki-Sung To Receive Additional 3.5% Stake from Dad + Updated NAV Valuation Analysis

Chung Mong-Joon is gifting a 3.54% stake in HD Hyundai to his eldest son HD Hyundai Chairman Chung Ki-Sung which will raise his stake in HD Hyundai...

Douglas Kim

MS-South Korea Index Earning Revision (Jun): Samsung Electronics, HANKOOK TIRE & TECHNOLOGY, KAL

We analyzed MS-South Korea's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Samsung Electronics, HANKOOK TIRE & TECHNOLOGY, DB INSURANCE,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Korea Value-Up Index Rebalance: US$1.4bn Round-Trip Trade Tomorrow

There are 20 adds and 19 deletes for the index in June, plus large capping changes for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, leading to one-way...

Brian Freitas

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