Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recently awarded "Maharatna" status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this</li>
<li>Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics</li>
<li>Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers</li>
</ul>


Recently awarded "Maharatna" status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this
Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics
Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers


RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> continues to focus on growing its offline distribution network and added 684 new branches in Q3FY23, taking the total to 7183.</li>
<li>It is also focusing on niche under-penetrated segments like Gold Loans and Wealth Management. Its Payment Acceptance Points network has also seen rapid growth.</li>
<li>QoQ loan growth was somewhat muted, largely due to underwhelming growth on the corporate side as pricing in the marketplace is not as remunerative due to elevated competition.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) continues to focus on growing its offline distribution network and added 684 new branches in Q3FY23, taking the total to 7183.
It is also focusing on niche under-penetrated segments like Gold Loans and Wealth Management. Its Payment Acceptance Points network has also seen rapid growth.
QoQ loan growth was somewhat muted, largely due to underwhelming growth on the corporate side as pricing in the marketplace is not as remunerative due to elevated competition.


HDFC Bank: Q3FY23 Growth Was Somewhat Muted, but Long-Term Growth Potential Remains Intact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>NIMs remain priority: In Q4FY25, HDFCB’s NIMs surprised positively, inching up by ~11bps QoQ, supported by stable CoF, lower interest reversals and support from CRR cut in Dec’24.</li><li>Since the merger, the bank has maintained its NIMs in a narrow range of 3.4-3.5% and the management expects to maintain margins within a similar range, barring quarterly variations.</li><li>The yield repricing on repo-linked loans generally happens within a quarter, with mortgage and corporate loans repricing immediately. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIMs remain priority: In Q4FY25, HDFCB’s NIMs surprised positively, inching up by ~11bps QoQ, supported by stable CoF, lower interest reversals and support from CRR cut in Dec’24.Since the merger, the bank has maintained its NIMs in a narrow range of 3.4-3.5% and the management expects to maintain margins within a similar range, barring quarterly variations.The yield repricing on repo-linked loans generally happens within a quarter, with mortgage and corporate loans repricing immediately. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank Ltd. - NIMs Surprise; Full Impact of Rate Cuts to Be Visible from Q1FY26 Onwards!

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/time-to-buy-hdfc-bank-hdfcb-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our insight in January 14th 2025</a> signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.</li>
<li>Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).

Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.


Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

<ul>
<li>Deposit growth has been decent and exceeded loan growth, allowing HDFCB to bring down its credit-deposit ratio. Average deposits grew 15%+ YoY, while loans grew at 7%+ YoY in Q3FY25.</li>
<li>Despite tough macro environment, HDFCB was able to gain market share in deposits. Despite headwinds from tight liquidity leading to competitive pricing, HDFCB was able to maintain its NIM.</li>
<li>HDFCB is benefitting from its productivity and technology-led enhancements with costs growing at just 7% YoY. Despite weak macro-economic environment, HDFCB's asset quality has remained pristine, barring seasonality in Agri-loans.</li>
</ul>


Deposit growth has been decent and exceeded loan growth, allowing HDFCB to bring down its credit-deposit ratio. Average deposits grew 15%+ YoY, while loans grew at 7%+ YoY in Q3FY25.
Despite tough macro environment, HDFCB was able to gain market share in deposits. Despite headwinds from tight liquidity leading to competitive pricing, HDFCB was able to maintain its NIM.
HDFCB is benefitting from its productivity and technology-led enhancements with costs growing at just 7% YoY. Despite weak macro-economic environment, HDFCB's asset quality has remained pristine, barring seasonality in Agri-loans.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

High demand for power related lending can last for decades, marked improvement in credit metrics, new Maharatna status (only 12 companies have...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank: Q3FY23 Growth Was Somewhat Muted, but Long-Term Growth Potential Remains Intact

An investment in HDFCB's stock has potential to generate 21%+ IRR over the next 3Y. While QoQ loan growth was somewhat muted, HDFCB's long-term...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HDFC Bank Ltd. - NIMs Surprise; Full Impact of Rate Cuts to Be Visible from Q1FY26 Onwards!

NIMs remain priority: In Q4FY25, HDFCB’s NIMs surprised positively, inching up by ~11bps QoQ, supported by stable CoF, lower interest reversals and...

Axis Direct

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...

Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

Despite high competitive intensity, HDFCB has seen strong deposits growth. Its post-merger liquidity and credit-deposit metrics have come into...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

High demand for power related lending can last for decades, marked improvement in credit metrics, new Maharatna status (only 12 companies have...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank: Q3FY23 Growth Was Somewhat Muted, but Long-Term Growth Potential Remains Intact

An investment in HDFCB's stock has potential to generate 21%+ IRR over the next 3Y. While QoQ loan growth was somewhat muted, HDFCB's long-term...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HDFC Bank Ltd. - NIMs Surprise; Full Impact of Rate Cuts to Be Visible from Q1FY26 Onwards!

NIMs remain priority: In Q4FY25, HDFCB’s NIMs surprised positively, inching up by ~11bps QoQ, supported by stable CoF, lower interest reversals and...

Axis Direct

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

​HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...

Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

Despite high competitive intensity, HDFCB has seen strong deposits growth. Its post-merger liquidity and credit-deposit metrics have come into...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...