Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.</li>
</ul>



Context:HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.

Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.

Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has been in a mild pullback since the end of July. The stock closed up for 2 weeks but has not reached any significative overbought level.</li>
<li>This week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> went down a bit, stayed above the Q1 support level but this pattern is very bullish, in the past it gave way to long, profitable rallies.
</li>
<li>We cannot say for sure if the stock will rally up from here, but if it does, consider profit targets north of 1034 (Q3), and it could rally higher.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been in a mild pullback since the end of July. The stock closed up for 2 weeks but has not reached any significative overbought level.
This week HDFC Bank went down a bit, stayed above the Q1 support level but this pattern is very bullish, in the past it gave way to long, profitable rallies.

We cannot say for sure if the stock will rally up from here, but if it does, consider profit targets north of 1034 (Q3), and it could rally higher.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Tactical Outlook: Will The Rally Continue?

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2FY26 witnessed sequential NIM stability at 11.2%, but the adverse product mix shift toward transactors, coupled with higher operating costs, led to a lower pre-provision operating profit and PAT.</li>
<li>The company is actively sacrificing immediate yield for better asset quality and volume growth through RuPay/UPI integration, addressing key regulatory and positioning itself to capture theTier II-III consumption base.</li>
<li>If the stabilization of funding costs and the anticipated moderation of credit costs materialise, the premium valuation may be justified by renewed focus on higher-yielding revolving assets.
</li>
</ul>


Q2FY26 witnessed sequential NIM stability at 11.2%, but the adverse product mix shift toward transactors, coupled with higher operating costs, led to a lower pre-provision operating profit and PAT.
The company is actively sacrificing immediate yield for better asset quality and volume growth through RuPay/UPI integration, addressing key regulatory and positioning itself to capture theTier II-III consumption base.
If the stabilization of funding costs and the anticipated moderation of credit costs materialise, the premium valuation may be justified by renewed focus on higher-yielding revolving assets.



The Beat Ideas: SBI Cards - Is the Worst Now Behind Us?

<ul>
<li>A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.</li>
<li>Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is the only Asian stock overbought.</li>
</ul>


A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is the only Asian stock overbought.


Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Dec 22 – Dec 26)

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>ChatGPT said: HDFC Bank is now held by 71% of active EM funds — an all-time high, with steady inflows and just one exit in six months.</li>
<li>Aggressive Growth funds show strongest conviction, with multiple holders above a 7% weight.</li>
<li>Post-Merger, HDFC has widened its lead over ICICI and regional peers, cementing its role as EM managers’ core financials exposure.</li>
</ul>


ChatGPT said: HDFC Bank is now held by 71% of active EM funds — an all-time high, with steady inflows and just one exit in six months.
Aggressive Growth funds show strongest conviction, with multiple holders above a 7% weight.
Post-Merger, HDFC has widened its lead over ICICI and regional peers, cementing its role as EM managers’ core financials exposure.


HDFC Bank Limited:  Record Ownership and Dominance Among EM Financials

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)