Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2 FY26 showed healthy spend growth but structurally weak profitability, with yield compression, elevated credit costs, and higher OpEx offsetting sharp funding-cost relief</li>
<li>Portfolio mix skewed toward transactors and EMI-led spends drove lower interest-earning assets, capping NIM at 11.2% despite a 69 bps QoQ drop in cost of funds.</li>
<li>Credit costs remain materially above historical levels, with heavy write-offs keeping ROE anchored in the low-teens and limiting near-term earnings recovery.</li>
</ul>


Q2 FY26 showed healthy spend growth but structurally weak profitability, with yield compression, elevated credit costs, and higher OpEx offsetting sharp funding-cost relief
Portfolio mix skewed toward transactors and EMI-led spends drove lower interest-earning assets, capping NIM at 11.2% despite a 69 bps QoQ drop in cost of funds.
Credit costs remain materially above historical levels, with heavy write-offs keeping ROE anchored in the low-teens and limiting near-term earnings recovery.


2026 | High Conviction | SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN) | Swimming Troubled Waters

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) earnings missed estimates yet again due to higher provisioning (9.4%) and muted fee income</li><li>The share of interest earning loans (revolve + instalment loans) remained steady QoQ at 60%, resulting in steady NIMs (10.6%)</li><li>SBICARD’s delinquencies continue to inch up (write-offs at 9.8% vs 8.2% in Q2FY25) with no near-term moderation in sight</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBI Cards’ (SBICARD) earnings missed estimates yet again due to higher provisioning (9.4%) and muted fee incomeThe share of interest earning loans (revolve + instalment loans) remained steady QoQ at 60%, resulting in steady NIMs (10.6%)SBICARD’s delinquencies continue to inch up (write-offs at 9.8% vs 8.2% in Q2FY25) with no near-term moderation in sightContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SBI Cards and Payment Services (3QFY25): No Recovery in Sight, Downgrade to REDUCE

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

SBI (State Bank of India) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a> is the best-performing PSU bank in India and shows clear convergence with private peers across fundamental metrics beyond what its valuations might suggest</li>
<li>Medium-Term ROE Forecast of 16% to 18% and loan growth forecast of 14% to 16%; ROA ~1.2% consistently; Strong fee income; successful cross-selling through subsidiaries; Strong asset quality.
</li>
<li>
 P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e, compared private peers’ valuations of 2.5x to 3.0x. SBIN can potentially re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~35% upside).</li>
</ul>



State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) is the best-performing PSU bank in India and shows clear convergence with private peers across fundamental metrics beyond what its valuations might suggest
Medium-Term ROE Forecast of 16% to 18% and loan growth forecast of 14% to 16%; ROA ~1.2% consistently; Strong fee income; successful cross-selling through subsidiaries; Strong asset quality.


 P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e, compared private peers’ valuations of 2.5x to 3.0x. SBIN can potentially re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~35% upside).


State Bank Of India (SBIN IN): Initiation -  Convergence with Private Peers, Poised for Re-Rating

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

India

SBI Cards and Payment Services Private Limited provides credit card services. The Company offers payment products and services in the form of corporate and credit cards with incentive and rewards programs. SBI Cards and Payment Services serves customers in India.

SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

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SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

2026 | High Conviction | SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN) | Swimming Troubled Waters

Q2 FY26 saw healthy spend growth but weak profitability due to yield compression, elevated credit costs, and high OpEx, limiting NIM and ROE...

Pranav Bhavsar

SBI Cards and Payment Services (3QFY25): No Recovery in Sight, Downgrade to REDUCE

The share of interest earning loans (revolve + instalment loans) remained steady QoQ at 60%, resulting in steady NIMs (10.6%)

HDFC Securities

State Bank Of India (SBIN IN): Initiation - Convergence with Private Peers, Poised for Re-Rating

State Bank of India (SBIN IN) is by far the best-performing PSU bank in India and has the potential to re-rate substantially in the near-term.

Raj S, CA, CFA

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

There are 19 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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2026 | High Conviction | SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN) | Swimming Troubled Waters

​Q2 FY26 saw healthy spend growth but weak profitability due to yield compression, elevated credit costs, and high OpEx, limiting NIM and ROE...

Pranav Bhavsar

SBI Cards and Payment Services (3QFY25): No Recovery in Sight, Downgrade to REDUCE

The share of interest earning loans (revolve + instalment loans) remained steady QoQ at 60%, resulting in steady NIMs (10.6%)

HDFC Securities

State Bank Of India (SBIN IN): Initiation - Convergence with Private Peers, Poised for Re-Rating

State Bank of India (SBIN IN) is by far the best-performing PSU bank in India and has the potential to re-rate substantially in the near-term.

Raj S, CA, CFA

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

There are 19 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Q2 FY26 saw healthy spend growth but weak profitability due to yield compression, elevated credit costs, and high OpEx, limiting NIM and ROE...