Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness (H&amp;H), Anton Oilfield, Lippo Karawaci</li>
<li>In the US, the December Conference Board leading index inched down by 0.1% (-0.1% e / 0.4% revised p) in December to 101.6. The decrease was due to "low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment and a decline in building permits", according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager for Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump is considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese goods as soon as February 1st, apparently due to fentanyl being trafficked into the US via Mexico and Canada, using chemicals from China.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness (H&amp;H), Anton Oilfield, Lippo Karawaci
In the US, the December Conference Board leading index inched down by 0.1% (-0.1% e / 0.4% revised p) in December to 101.6. The decrease was due to "low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment and a decline in building permits", according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager for Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.
US President Donald Trump is considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese goods as soon as February 1st, apparently due to fentanyl being trafficked into the US via Mexico and Canada, using chemicals from China.


<ul>
<li>In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.7%).</li>
<li>Growth in auto sales slowed to 0.7% (after accelerating 3.1% in November), albeit receipts at miscellaneous store retailers soared 4.3%.</li>
<li>The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP, and excludes food services, auto dealers, gas stations and building materials stores) accelerated 0.7% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p). </li>
</ul>


In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.7%).
Growth in auto sales slowed to 0.7% (after accelerating 3.1% in November), albeit receipts at miscellaneous store retailers soared 4.3%.
The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP, and excludes food services, auto dealers, gas stations and building materials stores) accelerated 0.7% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p). 


<ul>
<li>Health and Happiness' (H&amp;H) proposed tender offer and new notes issuance will extend its debt maturity profile and alleviate debt repayment pressure in FY 2026.</li>
<li>In our view, the high tender offer price of 109.8 is to incentivise bondholders to tender and subscribe to the new notes.</li>
<li>We see fair value for the proposed notes at c. 8%.</li>
</ul>


Health and Happiness' (H&amp;H) proposed tender offer and new notes issuance will extend its debt maturity profile and alleviate debt repayment pressure in FY 2026.
In our view, the high tender offer price of 109.8 is to incentivise bondholders to tender and subscribe to the new notes.
We see fair value for the proposed notes at c. 8%.


Health And Happiness - Event Flash - Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Herbs Generation Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Performance declined sharply in 24H1 mainly due to the decrease in orders from Customer A. Herbs Generation’s business/financial performance would be easily affected if the contributions from Customer A decline.</li>
<li>Current sales model of Herbs Generation is hard to change, and the Company still has to invest heavily in offline marketing and promotional efforts, but the efficiency is not high.</li>
<li>Herbs Generation’s ability to resist risks is relatively weak, which prevents us from building optimistic expectations for sustainable growth in the future. Valuation should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Performance declined sharply in 24H1 mainly due to the decrease in orders from Customer A. Herbs Generation’s business/financial performance would be easily affected if the contributions from Customer A decline.
Current sales model of Herbs Generation is hard to change, and the Company still has to invest heavily in offline marketing and promotional efforts, but the efficiency is not high.
Herbs Generation’s ability to resist risks is relatively weak, which prevents us from building optimistic expectations for sustainable growth in the future. Valuation should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Herbs Generation Group Holdings (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>In the US, the November nonfarm payrolls came in marginally above expectations at 227 k (220 k e), and were up significantly from the upwardly revised 36 k figure for October (which was impacted by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing).</li>
<li>Still, the three-month average payroll growth slowed from earlier in the year to 173 k.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% (4.1% e / 4.1% p). Average hourly earnings growth remained steady at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p) and 4.0% y-o-y (3.9% e / 4.0% p).</li>
</ul>


In the US, the November nonfarm payrolls came in marginally above expectations at 227 k (220 k e), and were up significantly from the upwardly revised 36 k figure for October (which was impacted by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing).
Still, the three-month average payroll growth slowed from earlier in the year to 173 k.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% (4.1% e / 4.1% p). Average hourly earnings growth remained steady at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p) and 4.0% y-o-y (3.9% e / 4.0% p).


Hong Kong

Health and Happiness (H&H) is a global family nutrition company that manufactures and sells premium nutrition and wellness products across adult, baby, and pet segments. Its offerings include infant formulas, probiotic supplements, vitamins, health supplements, and pet nutrition. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1999.

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Health and Happiness (1112 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from...

Lucror Analytics

Health And Happiness - Event Flash - Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance

Health and Happiness' (H&H) proposed tender offer and new notes issuance will extend its debt maturity profile and alleviate debt repayment...

Lucror Analytics

Pre-IPO Herbs Generation Group Holdings (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Herbs Generation's performance took a hit in 24H1 due to decreased orders from Customer A, highlighting vulnerability to risk and need for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the November nonfarm payrolls came in marginally above expectations at 227 k (220 k e), and were up significantly from the upwardly...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from...

Lucror Analytics

Health And Happiness - Event Flash - Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance

Health and Happiness' (H&H) proposed tender offer and new notes issuance will extend its debt maturity profile and alleviate debt repayment...

Lucror Analytics

Pre-IPO Herbs Generation Group Holdings (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Herbs Generation's performance took a hit in 24H1 due to decreased orders from Customer A, highlighting vulnerability to risk and need for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the November nonfarm payrolls came in marginally above expectations at 227 k (220 k e), and were up significantly from the upwardly...

Lucror Analytics

Herbs Generation's performance took a hit in 24H1 due to decreased orders from Customer A, highlighting vulnerability to risk and need for...