Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.</li>
<li>This week we look at four reasons why the curve steepener is now the trend to watch! There are four reasons for the USD curve steepening now</li>
<li>The issuance profile will move towards longer durations, the BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs, the Manufacturing rebound will add to steepening pressures, positioning is already loaded with duration</li>
</ul>


In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.
This week we look at four reasons why the curve steepener is now the trend to watch! There are four reasons for the USD curve steepening now
The issuance profile will move towards longer durations, the BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs, the Manufacturing rebound will add to steepening pressures, positioning is already loaded with duration


Out of the Box #14: 4 Reasons Why Curve Steepening Is Now on the Cards

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The SPDR® S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust is primed to receive support from lower implied risk premiums amid an interest rate slowdown from the Federal Reserve.</li>
<li>However, a broad-based analysis suggests that the S&amp;R 500 and the SPDR S &amp;P 500ETF Trust are potentially undervalued.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500's (SP500) year-to-date surge might have surprised many, as the talk of the town at the turn of the year was geared toward a sustained market drawdown until an interest rate pivot occurred.</li>
</ul>


The SPDR® S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust is primed to receive support from lower implied risk premiums amid an interest rate slowdown from the Federal Reserve.
However, a broad-based analysis suggests that the S&amp;R 500 and the SPDR S &amp;P 500ETF Trust are potentially undervalued.
The S&amp;P 500's (SP500) year-to-date surge might have surprised many, as the talk of the town at the turn of the year was geared toward a sustained market drawdown until an interest rate pivot occurred.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. </li>
<li>As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we <em><strong>cannot be bearish</strong></em>if the SPX is above 4165-4200</li>
<li>Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.


Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.


Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives</li>
<li>This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).</li>
</ul>


The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).


"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

United States

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of The Health Care Select Sector Index.  The Index includes companies involved in health care equipment and supplies, health care providers and services, biotechnology & pharmaceuticals.

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Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV US)

Out of the Box #14: 4 Reasons Why Curve Steepening Is Now on the Cards

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action...

Steno Research

SPY: Moderate Gains In Store?

The SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust is primed to receive support from lower implied risk premiums amid an interest rate slowdown from the Federal Reserve.

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow $DJI Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 ahead of FOMC. Breadth continues to improve within the Russell 2000 $IWM, and breadth improving within...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

5/2/23 we discussed how $Nasdaq Comp was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 was possible. It hit 13,154 Tuesday as...

Vermilion Research

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value Poised to Outperform?; Watching Semiconductors $SOXX $XSD and Banks $KRE $KBE for breakage....

Vermilion Research

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