European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 50.1%; GBL, 40.5% (!); Heineken Holding, 16.0%; Industrivärden C, 5.2%; Investor B, 11.6%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45.1%. </li>
<li>The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 17.2%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 50.1%; GBL, 40.5% (!); Heineken Holding, 16.0%; Industrivärden C, 5.2%; Investor B, 11.6%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45.1%. 
The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 17.2%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.
Recommended trades: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May’23 Report

<ul>
<li>FEMSA has placed c.€3.3 billion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21117:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEIA NA)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> shares and tap €250 million of existing 2026 Exchangeable bonds. The placement removes a major overhang.</li>
<li>The holding structure (equivalence 1 HEIO NA ~ 1 HEIA NO) allows the Heineken family to control the second largest brewer worldwide, with just a 27.3% economic interest (post-FEMSA's placement).</li>
<li>The discount has tightened to 15.8%, still above the 10.4% average of the last ten years, and rather large considering such a simple structure.</li>
</ul>


FEMSA has placed c.€3.3 billion of Heineken NV (HEIA NA) and Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) shares and tap €250 million of existing 2026 Exchangeable bonds. The placement removes a major overhang.
The holding structure (equivalence 1 HEIO NA ~ 1 HEIA NO) allows the Heineken family to control the second largest brewer worldwide, with just a 27.3% economic interest (post-FEMSA's placement).
The discount has tightened to 15.8%, still above the 10.4% average of the last ten years, and rather large considering such a simple structure.


FEMSA's Exit from Heineken/Heineken Holding and Share Price Spread

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Multi Bintang Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> is Indonesia's leading beer company, with a marketshare of 50% by volume. The company is 89% owned by Heineken. </li>
<li>The company has maintained an average 5 Yr/10 Yr ROCE of over 72%/82% and paid out 80-100% of its profits as dividends.  It is also net cash.</li>
<li>The stock boasts a 6.5%-7% dividend yield and trades at 14-15x PE if profits normalize due to increased tourism in Indonesia, where we believe most of the demand is. </li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) is Indonesia's leading beer company, with a marketshare of 50% by volume. The company is 89% owned by Heineken. 
The company has maintained an average 5 Yr/10 Yr ROCE of over 72%/82% and paid out 80-100% of its profits as dividends.  It is also net cash.
The stock boasts a 6.5%-7% dividend yield and trades at 14-15x PE if profits normalize due to increased tourism in Indonesia, where we believe most of the demand is. 


Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Recovery Story With High Cash Flow Generation and Dividend Pay Out

<ul>
<li>The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during March. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.3% (vs. 47.1%); GBL, 38.15 (vs. 37.7%); Heineken Holding, 16.7% (vs. 16.5%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 1.4% (vs. 4.4%); Investor B, 6.1% (vs. 5.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 45.4% (vs. 43.7%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 24.9% (vs. 25.6%), and on 26 March reached 27.7%.</li>
<li>What seems interesting: listed assets vs. Industrivärden C and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during March. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.3% (vs. 47.1%); GBL, 38.15 (vs. 37.7%); Heineken Holding, 16.7% (vs. 16.5%); 
Industrivärden C, 1.4% (vs. 4.4%); Investor B, 6.1% (vs. 5.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 45.4% (vs. 43.7%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 24.9% (vs. 25.6%), and on 26 March reached 27.7%.
What seems interesting: listed assets vs. Industrivärden C and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March'24 Report

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.5%); GBL, 37.7% vs. (37.1%); Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16.6%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 4.4% (vs. 3.8%); Investor B, 5.6% (vs. 7.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.7% (vs. 42%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 25.6% (vs. 25.2%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.5%); GBL, 37.7% vs. (37.1%); Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16.6%); 
Industrivärden C, 4.4% (vs. 3.8%); Investor B, 5.6% (vs. 7.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.7% (vs. 42%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 25.6% (vs. 25.2%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February’24 Report

Netherlands

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. The discount to NAV of GBL has reached a very high level, in my view. That...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Recovery Story With High Cash Flow Generation and Dividend Pay Out

Multi Bintang, Indonesia's largest brewer boasts a 6.5%-7% dividend yield and trades at 14-15x PE if profits normalize due to increased tourism in...

Sameer Taneja

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos widened in March, with notable changes in C.F.Alba, GBL, Heineken Holding, Investor B, and Porsche Automobile...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February’24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened in February. What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. The discount to NAV of GBL has reached a very high level, in my view. That...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

FEMSA's Exit from Heineken/Heineken Holding and Share Price Spread

FEMSA has now divested its entire interest in the Heineken Group (in both HEIA and HEIO). The Heineken family has slightly increased its control in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Recovery Story With High Cash Flow Generation and Dividend Pay Out

Multi Bintang, Indonesia's largest brewer boasts a 6.5%-7% dividend yield and trades at 14-15x PE if profits normalize due to increased tourism in...

Sameer Taneja

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March'24 Report

​Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos widened in March, with notable changes in C.F.Alba, GBL, Heineken Holding, Investor B, and Porsche Automobile...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February’24 Report

​Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened in February. What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos widened in March, with notable changes in C.F.Alba, GBL, Heineken Holding, Investor B, and Porsche Automobile...

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened in February. What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN...