European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.</li>
<li>Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.</li>
</ul>


Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.
Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.
Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Multi Bintang Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. </li>
<li>Earlier, parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21117:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEIA NA)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener"></a> had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.</li>
<li>Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with &gt;8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. </li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. 
Earlier, parent Heineken NV (HEIA NA)  had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.
Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with &gt;8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. 


Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Massive Inflection in Q3 FY24 with Double Digit Growth !!

Analyst

Steve

China Resources Beer Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> is a USD21bn red-chip company, and the largest beer company in China in terms of sales volume.</li>
<li>The company is a perfect fit for the GARP (growth at a reasonable price) strategy, and visibility in earnings is also high for the next 3-5 years.</li>
<li>Weak sentiment in H-share stocks and in overall China macro/consumption numbers provide a good entry opportunity for the stock.  </li>
</ul>



China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) is a USD21bn red-chip company, and the largest beer company in China in terms of sales volume.
The company is a perfect fit for the GARP (growth at a reasonable price) strategy, and visibility in earnings is also high for the next 3-5 years.
Weak sentiment in H-share stocks and in overall China macro/consumption numbers provide a good entry opportunity for the stock.  


China Resources Beer (291 HK):  High Visibility; Steady Growth; Reasonable Valuation

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • Heineken | European brewers are absorbing part of the effects of the higher import duties • Basic-Fit | VAT increase in Belgium possibly to cost EUR 15m • Black Friday sales | Monta reports 32% growth in online order volumes • E-commerce & Logistics | Royal Mail to partner with Temu</li></ul>

In this edition: • Heineken | European brewers are absorbing part of the effects of the higher import duties • Basic-Fit | VAT increase in Belgium possibly to cost EUR 15m • Black Friday sales | Monta reports 32% growth in online order volumes • E-commerce & Logistics | Royal Mail to partner with Temu

Basic-Fit NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GBL: discount 28.6% (Oct 31). Selling €1.7bn GBL Capital NAV for €1.5bn cash (+€0.4bn deferred); €0.6bn commitments transferred. Simpler, more liquid, greater buyback firepower—supports discount narrowing.</li>
<li>Sweden: Industrivärden discount 5.8% (near lows). Investor AB resilient; NAV SEK 1,024bn, TSR +5%. Quality ballast, limited discount alpha now.</li>
<li>Vivendi: 33.2% discount to €4.67 NAV; AMF-driven OPA path intact. Scenario-weighted value ~€4.17; prefer outright long or stub vs UMG/Banijay/MFE; trim if discount narrows to 10–15%.</li>
</ul>


GBL: discount 28.6% (Oct 31). Selling €1.7bn GBL Capital NAV for €1.5bn cash (+€0.4bn deferred); €0.6bn commitments transferred. Simpler, more liquid, greater buyback firepower—supports discount narrowing.
Sweden: Industrivärden discount 5.8% (near lows). Investor AB resilient; NAV SEK 1,024bn, TSR +5%. Quality ballast, limited discount alpha now.
Vivendi: 33.2% discount to €4.67 NAV; AMF-driven OPA path intact. Scenario-weighted value ~€4.17; prefer outright long or stub vs UMG/Banijay/MFE; trim if discount narrows to 10–15%.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October 2025 Report

Netherlands

Heineken NV produces and distributes beverages internationally. The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names.

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Heineken NV (HEIA NA)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Massive Inflection in Q3 FY24 with Double Digit Growth !!

We summarise the superb Multibintang (MLBI IJ) results—trading at 11.4x FY24 with a >8% dividend yield and a 10-year average ROCE>80%; this is a...

Sameer Taneja

China Resources Beer (291 HK): High Visibility; Steady Growth; Reasonable Valuation

A stock with strong growth, reasonable valuation, and high visibility for the next three to five years, in one of the best consumer sectors in...

Steve

Basic-Fit NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Heineken | European brewers are absorbing part of the effects of the higher import duties • Basic-Fit | VAT increase in Belgium...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October 2025 Report

GBL: asset sales boost liquidity, simplify the portfolio, and fuel buybacks—primed for discount compression. Keep Swedish holdcos as ballast;...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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