Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Heineken | European brewers are absorbing part of the effects of the higher import duties • Basic-Fit | VAT increase in Belgium possibly to cost EUR 15m • Black Friday sales | Monta reports 32% growth in online order volumes • E-commerce & Logistics | Royal Mail to partner with Temu</li></ul>

In this edition: • Heineken | European brewers are absorbing part of the effects of the higher import duties • Basic-Fit | VAT increase in Belgium possibly to cost EUR 15m • Black Friday sales | Monta reports 32% growth in online order volumes • E-commerce & Logistics | Royal Mail to partner with Temu

Basic-Fit NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GBL: discount 28.6% (Oct 31). Selling €1.7bn GBL Capital NAV for €1.5bn cash (+€0.4bn deferred); €0.6bn commitments transferred. Simpler, more liquid, greater buyback firepower—supports discount narrowing.</li>
<li>Sweden: Industrivärden discount 5.8% (near lows). Investor AB resilient; NAV SEK 1,024bn, TSR +5%. Quality ballast, limited discount alpha now.</li>
<li>Vivendi: 33.2% discount to €4.67 NAV; AMF-driven OPA path intact. Scenario-weighted value ~€4.17; prefer outright long or stub vs UMG/Banijay/MFE; trim if discount narrows to 10–15%.</li>
</ul>


GBL: discount 28.6% (Oct 31). Selling €1.7bn GBL Capital NAV for €1.5bn cash (+€0.4bn deferred); €0.6bn commitments transferred. Simpler, more liquid, greater buyback firepower—supports discount narrowing.
Sweden: Industrivärden discount 5.8% (near lows). Investor AB resilient; NAV SEK 1,024bn, TSR +5%. Quality ballast, limited discount alpha now.
Vivendi: 33.2% discount to €4.67 NAV; AMF-driven OPA path intact. Scenario-weighted value ~€4.17; prefer outright long or stub vs UMG/Banijay/MFE; trim if discount narrows to 10–15%.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October 2025 Report

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a Janus-faced case?</li><li>• BE Semiconductor Industries | as forecasted, order intake improved strongly; launches new EUR 60m share buyback program • Heineken | presents new medium term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • RELX Group | 9M25 trading update shows no surprises (as it should be) • Aalberts | foresees FY25 EBITA-margin of 13%, 50bps below market consensus • Kendrion | completes sale of its China business</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a Janus-faced case?• BE Semiconductor Industries | as forecasted, order intake improved strongly; launches new EUR 60m share buyback program • Heineken | presents new medium term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • RELX Group | 9M25 trading update shows no surprises (as it should be) • Aalberts | foresees FY25 EBITA-margin of 13%, 50bps below market consensus • Kendrion | completes sale of its China business

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the board • Randstad | organic revenue per working remains negative and lags its US peer • Unilever | spin-off ice cream unit delayed because of US shutdown • TKH Group | completed divestment of Dewetron • Nexperia | warns customers not to buy chips from its Chinese branch • Dutch politics | EenVandaag poll: Bontenbal most trusted candidate PM</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the board • Randstad | organic revenue per working remains negative and lags its US peer • Unilever | spin-off ice cream unit delayed because of US shutdown • TKH Group | completed divestment of Dewetron • Nexperia | warns customers not to buy chips from its Chinese branch • Dutch politics | EenVandaag poll: Bontenbal most trusted candidate PM

Randstad Holding NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – expects revenue growth in 2026 • Heineken | to transform its Amsterdam headquarters; additional reduction 400 jobs • InPost | Royal Mail plans to double its UK parcel points by 2030 • Shell | FID on Nigerian offshore gas project • bpostgroup | launches a new B2B proposition: Night Delivery • Nexperia | more information on what led to this week’s events</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – expects revenue growth in 2026 • Heineken | to transform its Amsterdam headquarters; additional reduction 400 jobs • InPost | Royal Mail plans to double its UK parcel points by 2030 • Shell | FID on Nigerian offshore gas project • bpostgroup | launches a new B2B proposition: Night Delivery • Nexperia | more information on what led to this week’s events

NXP Semiconductors NV - What's News in Amsterdam

Netherlands

Heineken NV produces and distributes beverages internationally. The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names.

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Heineken NV (HEIA NA)

Basic-Fit NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Heineken | European brewers are absorbing part of the effects of the higher import duties • Basic-Fit | VAT increase in Belgium...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October 2025 Report

GBL: asset sales boost liquidity, simplify the portfolio, and fuel buybacks—primed for discount compression. Keep Swedish holdcos as ballast;...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 23 October (AkzoNobel | Besi | Heineken | RELX | Aalberts | Kendrion)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a Janus-faced case? • BE Semiconductor Industries | as forecasted, order intake improved strongly; launches new...

The IDEA!

Randstad Holding NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the...

The IDEA!

NXP Semiconductors NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – expects revenue growth in 2026 • Heineken | to transform its Amsterdam headquarters;...

The IDEA!

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