European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.</li>
<li>Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.</li>
<li>Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.
Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.
Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon technology • Heineken | loses UEFA Club Competitions Sponsorship to AB Inbev • InPost | offer declared unconditional • Shell | completes Gulf of America asset sale • Arcadis | WSP Global withdraws proposed offer for the company</li></ul>

In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon technology • Heineken | loses UEFA Club Competitions Sponsorship to AB Inbev • InPost | offer declared unconditional • Shell | completes Gulf of America asset sale • Arcadis | WSP Global withdraws proposed offer for the company

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity</li>
<li>The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.</li>
<li>In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.</li>
</ul>


Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity
The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.
In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.


What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

<ul><li>In this edition: • Heineken | reported to be in talks on buying 300 Stonegate pubs for GBP 300m • Heijmans | largest shareholder to sell its stake • Dutch online spending | growth stalls as mix shifts toward lower-value transactions • Dutch consumer confidence | modest improvement in September but still deeply negative • E-commerce & Logistics | EUR 2 handling charge on all non-EU e-commerce imports</li></ul>

In this edition: • Heineken | reported to be in talks on buying 300 Stonegate pubs for GBP 300m • Heijmans | largest shareholder to sell its stake • Dutch online spending | growth stalls as mix shifts toward lower-value transactions • Dutch consumer confidence | modest improvement in September but still deeply negative • E-commerce & Logistics | EUR 2 handling charge on all non-EU e-commerce imports

Sligro Food Group NV - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul>
<li>According to an article in the La Lettre website, Ahold Delhaize entered preliminary discussions to acquire all or part of French supermarket chain Carrefour at the end of 2024.</li>
<li>However, talks ended in January 2025 without a deal.</li>
<li>Ahold Delhaize, with a 2024 turnover of EUR 89.4bn and strong U.S. operations, sought expansion into the French market and saw potential synergies, particularly in private-label products and Carrefour’s Brazilian assets. </li>
</ul>


According to an article in the La Lettre website, Ahold Delhaize entered preliminary discussions to acquire all or part of French supermarket chain Carrefour at the end of 2024.
However, talks ended in January 2025 without a deal.
Ahold Delhaize, with a 2024 turnover of EUR 89.4bn and strong U.S. operations, sought expansion into the French market and saw potential synergies, particularly in private-label products and Carrefour’s Brazilian assets. 


What's News in Amsterdam - 26 May (Ahold Delhaize | Heineken | PostNL)

Netherlands

Heineken NV produces and distributes beverages internationally. The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names.

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Heineken NV (HEIA NA)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Wide discounts, persistent premiums and shifting catalysts. We revisit Europe's main holding-company valuation gaps and where the next convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 23 September (Adyen | ASM Int'l | Heineken | InPost | Shell | Arcadis)

In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon...

The IDEA!

What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt...

The IDEA!

Sligro Food Group NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Heineken | reported to be in talks on buying 300 Stonegate pubs for GBP 300m • Heijmans | largest shareholder to sell its...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 26 May (Ahold Delhaize | Heineken | PostNL)

According to an article in the La Lettre website, Ahold Delhaize entered preliminary discussions to acquire all or part of French supermarket chain...

The IDEA!

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