Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heiwa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2528:1" rel="noopener">Heiwa Corp (6412 JP)</a> got 99% of its revenue as a pachinko/pachislot machinery maker. In 2011, it bought one of Japan's largest golf course operators, PGM Holdings, from Lone Star. </li>
<li>Golf course revenue is up 30% in 10yrs. Pachinko/Pachislot revenue is down by 60+% in the same period. Golf is the bulk of revenue and OP now.</li>
<li>Today, the company announced a stunning, even monumental acquisition to become the largest golf course operator in the world. </li>
</ul>



Heiwa Corp (6412 JP) got 99% of its revenue as a pachinko/pachislot machinery maker. In 2011, it bought one of Japan's largest golf course operators, PGM Holdings, from Lone Star. 
Golf course revenue is up 30% in 10yrs. Pachinko/Pachislot revenue is down by 60+% in the same period. Golf is the bulk of revenue and OP now.
Today, the company announced a stunning, even monumental acquisition to become the largest golf course operator in the world. 


Heiwa (6412) Announces Game-Changing Acquisition, Gets Very Heavily Levered (Termed Debt)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sankyo is a leading Japanese maker of Pachinko and Pachislot machines. The company has a consistent record of generating positive free cash flow and operating cash flow.</li>
<li>It trades at 6x EV/EBITDA (2025E) and P/E of 9.5x (2025E). Its net margin improved from 9.9% in 2021 to 21.8% in 2022, and 27% in 2024.</li>
<li>Sankyo has also been aggressively buying back its shares in the past five years. We believe Sankyo could continue to outperform the market in the next 1-2 years. </li>
</ul>


Sankyo is a leading Japanese maker of Pachinko and Pachislot machines. The company has a consistent record of generating positive free cash flow and operating cash flow.
It trades at 6x EV/EBITDA (2025E) and P/E of 9.5x (2025E). Its net margin improved from 9.9% in 2021 to 21.8% in 2022, and 27% in 2024.
Sankyo has also been aggressively buying back its shares in the past five years. We believe Sankyo could continue to outperform the market in the next 1-2 years. 


<ul>
<li>Mars Group Holdings has three main business units including Amusement related (including pachinko/pachislot peripherals), Smart Solutions, and Hotels/restaurants related. </li>
<li>It trades at P/E of 8.5x, P/B of 0.8x, and EV/EBITDA of 2.3x. Net cash is 48% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Its sales, gross profit, and operating profit increased by 180%, 146%, and 680%, respectively from FY22 to FY25. However, it had a disappointing results in FY1Q26.</li>
</ul>


Mars Group Holdings has three main business units including Amusement related (including pachinko/pachislot peripherals), Smart Solutions, and Hotels/restaurants related. 
It trades at P/E of 8.5x, P/B of 0.8x, and EV/EBITDA of 2.3x. Net cash is 48% of its market cap.
Its sales, gross profit, and operating profit increased by 180%, 146%, and 680%, respectively from FY22 to FY25. However, it had a disappointing results in FY1Q26.


David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The new article on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> from TV Tokyo is causing a dip on top of last week's weakness. This is a dip to buy.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>'s Offer is now open for tendering. Ignore the rumours. Zhang Wei will tender. Expect payment before Chinese New Year. </li>
<li>Accounting solely for the pre-IPO investors, 164.6m shares (US$1.9bn) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ubtech-robotics-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36469:1" rel="noopener">UBTech Robotics (9880 HK)</a> will be unlocked, ~39.2% of the firm’s total shares outstanding, and 91 days of three-month ADV.</li>
</ul>


The new article on Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) from TV Tokyo is causing a dip on top of last week's weakness. This is a dip to buy.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK)'s Offer is now open for tendering. Ignore the rumours. Zhang Wei will tender. Expect payment before Chinese New Year. 
Accounting solely for the pre-IPO investors, 164.6m shares (US$1.9bn) in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) will be unlocked, ~39.2% of the firm’s total shares outstanding, and 91 days of three-month ADV.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/867/original/2020-11-25_11-14-58.png?1606270511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173867"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-<ul>
<li>
CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul>In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>  in Buys, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil(5938 JP)</a> in Turnarounds, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a> in the Ex-Growth quadrant.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/896/original/2020-11-25_12-25-57.png?1606274769" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173896"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/903/original/2020-11-25_12-56-49.png?1606276623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173903"></figure></section><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN BUYS</a> - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. </section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsFOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as JFE (5411 JP)  in Buys, Lasertec (6920 JP) in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as Lixil(5938 JP) in Turnarounds, and Ariake Japan (2815 JP) in the Ex-Growth quadrant.CONTRARIAN BUYS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

Japan

Heiwa Corporation develops, produces, and sells pachinko machines.  The Company produces pachinko peripheral equipment and provides engineering service as well. Heiwa also sells pachisuro slot machines and operates pachinko parlors and golf courses.

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Heiwa Corp (6412 JP)

Heiwa (6412) Announces Game-Changing Acquisition, Gets Very Heavily Levered (Termed Debt)

Heiwa today announced a significant acquisition. Pachinko+Golf goes to 80-90% golf - the biggest owner operator in the world. And it does so with...

Travis Lundy

Asian Dividend Gems: Sankyo Co

Sankyo is a leading Japanese maker of Pachinko and Pachislot machines. The company has a strong track record of generating positive free cash flow...

Douglas Kim

Asian Dividend Gems: Mars Group Holdings

Mars Group Holdings supplies products and services for amusement venues including pachinko/pachislot peripherals. It has EV/EBITDA of 2.3x.Net cash...

Douglas Kim

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

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