Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023

Following on from our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-housing-in-the-guangdong-hong-kong-macau-greater-bay-area-gba" target="_blank">original note</a> on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on February 18, we are presenting the highlights from our inaugural 'Baywatch' report focused on the housing markets on the mainland of the GBA. For the essentials on the GBA, see Bondcritic's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-greater-bay-area-the-essential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29080">China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential</a>

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on February 18, we are presenting the highlights from our inaugural 'Baywatch' report focused on the housing markets on the mainland of the GBA. For the essentials on the GBA, see Bondcritic's China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Helenbergh China Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

Helenbergh is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
HLB is a real estate developer in China with exposure to mostly first and second tier cities. It has a national presence but a large percentage of its land bank resides in Pearl River Delta region. The company had a healthy balance sheet with 69% net gearing but as it ramped up expansion efforts, net gearing doubled to 134% in FY2018. Further to that, average effective interest rate had increased along with net gearing.
However, our main concern is its related party transaction. It has a dizzying number of transactions with subsidiaries owned by the controlling shareholder.

Helenbergh is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
HLB is a real estate developer in China with exposure to mostly first and second tier cities. It has a national presence but a large percentage of its land bank resides in Pearl River Delta region. The company had a healthy balance sheet with 69% net gearing but as it ramped up expansion efforts, net gearing doubled to 134% in FY2018. Further to that, average effective interest rate had increased along with net gearing.
However, our main concern is its related party transaction. It has a dizzying number of transactions with subsidiaries owned by the controlling shareholder.

Helenbergh (海伦堡) Early Thoughts - The Usual Red Flag - Related Party Transactions

Helenbergh China Holdings (HLB HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023

A weekly (Oct 6-12) curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023

​A weekly (Oct 6-12) curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on...

Robert Ciemniak

Helenbergh (海伦堡) Early Thoughts - The Usual Red Flag - Related Party Transactions

Helenbergh is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. HLB is a real estate developer in China with exposure to mostly first and...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

A weekly (Oct 6-12) curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market...