Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.</li>
<li>If you had any <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 

Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shougang-fushan-resources-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19494:1" rel="noopener">Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK)</a> shareholders approved the partial offer to acquire a maximum of 125.0 million shares (2.47% of outstanding shares) at HK$2.40 per share and the whitewash waiver.</li>
<li>The partial offer is now unconditional and will close on 12 September. Considering the irrevocables not to tender, a 100% minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 2.98%.</li>
<li>If the partial offer’s acceptance rate mirrors today’s general meeting minorities participation rate of 63.6%, it would imply a minimum proration of 4.69%. </li>
</ul>



Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) shareholders approved the partial offer to acquire a maximum of 125.0 million shares (2.47% of outstanding shares) at HK$2.40 per share and the whitewash waiver.
The partial offer is now unconditional and will close on 12 September. Considering the irrevocables not to tender, a 100% minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 2.98%.
If the partial offer’s acceptance rate mirrors today’s general meeting minorities participation rate of 63.6%, it would imply a minimum proration of 4.69%. 


Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK): Partial Offer Is Unconditional

<ul>
<li>YFO has played a relatively upfront game for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> - badly at first, then better. </li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2O (8242 JP)</a> now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)</a>'s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it's likely to be 13%+.</li>
</ul>


YFO has played a relatively upfront game for Toyo Construction (1890 JP) - badly at first, then better. 
With Takashimaya (8233 JP) and H2O (8242 JP) now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.

Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)'s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it's likely to be 13%+.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. </li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. </li>
<li>These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. 
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.


Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings - 25th August 2022

Equity Bottom-Up

Replacing coal-generated electricity with renewable energy to meet future carbon emission targets looks good on paper. Except when consumption surges in tandem with flood-impacted coal mines being shut down. This has resulted in varying degrees of production restrictions amid power curtailment in coke production areas. 
Yesterday coking coal’s most-active January contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange increased by ~6.9% to a contract high of RMB3,428 (US$532.80) per tonne. That's up from ~RMB1,800/tonne in the middle of July.
Coke, the processed form of coking or metallurgical (met) coal, is the key reducing agent of iron ore, the primary steelmaking ingredient.
Dalian iron ore closed 6.5% higher yesterday at RMB797.50/tonne, just below a session-high RMB799.50, the highest level since1st September. 
S&amp;P summarised the provincial warnings by the NDRC, as it relates to power curtailment, as follows:
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/234/669/original/image_846887656201634022040308.png?1634022039" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="234669"></figure>
 ... where green represents "smooth progress", yellow is a "relatively tough situation" and red presents a "very tough situation."
The coal chemical industry is highly susceptible to upstream and downstream industries. And rising raw materials (coke prices) will likely push steel prices higher.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-risun-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27956:1" rel="noopener">China Risun (1907 HK)</a> operates in the midstream of the coal value chain. This insight takes a look at Risun's recent fortunes and compares it to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henan-jinma-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26805:1" rel="noopener">Henan Jinma Energy (6885 HK)</a>.

Replacing coal-generated electricity with renewable energy to meet future carbon emission targets looks good on paper. Except when consumption surges in tandem with flood-impacted coal mines being shut down. This has resulted in varying degrees of production restrictions amid power curtailment in coke production areas. 
Yesterday coking coal’s most-active January contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange increased by ~6.9% to a contract high of RMB3,428 (US$532.80) per tonne. That's up from ~RMB1,800/tonne in the middle of July.
Coke, the processed form of coking or metallurgical (met) coal, is the key reducing agent of iron ore, the primary steelmaking ingredient.
Dalian iron ore closed 6.5% higher yesterday at RMB797.50/tonne, just below a session-high RMB799.50, the highest level since1st September. 
S&amp;P summarised the provincial warnings by the NDRC, as it relates to power curtailment, as follows:

 ... where green represents "smooth progress", yellow is a "relatively tough situation" and red presents a "very tough situation."
The coal chemical industry is highly susceptible to upstream and downstream industries. And rising raw materials (coke prices) will likely push steel prices higher.
China Risun (1907 HK) operates in the midstream of the coal value chain. This insight takes a look at Risun's recent fortunes and compares it to Henan Jinma Energy (6885 HK).

China Risun (1907 HK): Even Greater Profits Or A Steel Trap?

China

Henan Jinma Energy Co. Ltd. manufactures chemical products. The Company produces cokes, coal tars, crude benzenes, and other products. Henan Jinma Energy also operates power and heat generation.

Henan Jinma Energy (6885 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK): Partial Offer Is Unconditional

If the partial offer’s acceptance rate mirrors today’s general meeting minorities participation rate of 63.6%, it would imply a minimum proration...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

The long weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings - 25th August 2022

The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. These insights also flag those companies where...

David Blennerhassett

China Risun (1907 HK): Even Greater Profits Or A Steel Trap?

Risun's one-year forward PER is 6.3x against 5.4x currently. Around 16% upside to the forward average is around its all-time high close (last...

David Blennerhassett