Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.</li>
<li>The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.</li>
<li>Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.</li>
</ul>


China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.
The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.
Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.


CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market.</li>
<li>Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to outperform YTD, with Technology coming in a distant 3rd place.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a>  had multiple breakouts relative to MSCI Asian indexes and on an absolute basis.  Analysts' recommendations are split as the shares trade at their target price.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market.
Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to outperform YTD, with Technology coming in a distant 3rd place.

Hengan International Group (1044 HK)  had multiple breakouts relative to MSCI Asian indexes and on an absolute basis.  Analysts' recommendations are split as the shares trade at their target price.



Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (October 18)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Prop (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henderson-land-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1" rel="noopener">Henderson Land (12 HK)</a> are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.</li>
<li>Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Hang Lung Prop (101 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK), and Henderson Land (12 HK) are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.
Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.


HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A big structural change to underpin consumer demand goes unnoticed</li>
<li>Efforts to prop up retail sales this year have had the desired effect</li>
<li>We change up the members of the original consumer basket</li>
</ul>


A big structural change to underpin consumer demand goes unnoticed
Efforts to prop up retail sales this year have had the desired effect
We change up the members of the original consumer basket


Low Bar, High Bounce: China’s Consumer Comeback

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>SHEIN listed on the HKEX Main Board on 1 Sep 2026, and we work out entry timing for HSCI, HSI, HSCEI, HS TECH, Stock Connect and MS-China.</li>
<li>HSIL confirmed the HSCI ADD after the 14 Sep 2026 close on 2 Sep, and a 2.3% FF holds MS-China and HSCEI entry until the 28 Feb 2027 lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>The December 2026 HSI review is the first cycle SHEIN can enter, and Southbound inclusion follows the WVR rule of six months plus 20 trading days on 31 Mar 2027.</li>
</ul>


SHEIN listed on the HKEX Main Board on 1 Sep 2026, and we work out entry timing for HSCI, HSI, HSCEI, HS TECH, Stock Connect and MS-China.
HSIL confirmed the HSCI ADD after the 14 Sep 2026 close on 2 Sep, and a 2.3% FF holds MS-China and HSCEI entry until the 28 Feb 2027 lock-up expiry.
The December 2026 HSI review is the first cycle SHEIN can enter, and Southbound inclusion follows the WVR rule of six months plus 20 trading days on 31 Mar 2027.


SHEIN-W: Path to HS Indices, HK Connect and MS-China

China

Hengan International Group is a leading Chinese manufacturer and distributor of personal hygiene and household paper products. Its core offerings include sanitary napkins, baby and adult diapers, and various tissue paper products. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Jinjiang City, Fujian, China.

Price Gauge
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Hengan International (1044 HK)

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (October 18)

Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market. Materials and Healthcare...

David Mudd

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Low Bar, High Bounce: China’s Consumer Comeback

One of the members of our consumer basket, China Duty Free $1880, is up 16% today and 28% since we published, highlighting the asymmetric nature of...

Rikki Malik

SHEIN-W: Path to HS Indices, HK Connect and MS-China

We assess SHEIN's index path. HSCI ADD is confirmed for the 14 Sep 2026 close. We analyze its inclusion timeline for HSI, HSCEI, HS TECH,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (October 18)

Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market. Materials and Healthcare...

David Mudd

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

​High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Low Bar, High Bounce: China’s Consumer Comeback

One of the members of our consumer basket, China Duty Free $1880, is up 16% today and 28% since we published, highlighting the asymmetric nature of...

Rikki Malik

SHEIN-W: Path to HS Indices, HK Connect and MS-China

We assess SHEIN's index path. HSCI ADD is confirmed for the 14 Sep 2026 close. We analyze its inclusion timeline for HSI, HSCEI, HS TECH,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...