Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are initiating coverage of Herbalife Ltd. The company has differentiated itself in its ability to successfully change with the times and capitalize on the shifting market dynamics in a period when many have not.</li><li>Herbalife’s independent distributors’ daily methods of operations (DMOs) have evolved, including the creation of a footprint of Nutrition Clubs that offer daily consumption options to customers, which gives the company’s products a sizable worldwide brick-and-mortar infrastructure in towns and neighborhoods where <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">consumers live and work.</span></li><li><p>Following the 2016 US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) consent order, Herbalife changed its compensation plan in the US so that distributor commissions were predominantly based on the demonstration of a sale to an end consumer, thereby eliminating the pyramiding risks associated with almost all multi-level marketing (MLM) business models.</p></li></ul>

We are initiating coverage of Herbalife Ltd. The company has differentiated itself in its ability to successfully change with the times and capitalize on the shifting market dynamics in a period when many have not.Herbalife’s independent distributors’ daily methods of operations (DMOs) have evolved, including the creation of a footprint of Nutrition Clubs that offer daily consumption options to customers, which gives the company’s products a sizable worldwide brick-and-mortar infrastructure in towns and neighborhoods where consumers live and work.Following the 2016 US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) consent order, Herbalife changed its compensation plan in the US so that distributor commissions were predominantly based on the demonstration of a sale to an end consumer, thereby eliminating the pyramiding risks associated with almost all multi-level marketing (MLM) business models.

Herbalife Ltd.: - Adapting to the Times; Well Positioned for Long-Term Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Consumer Products Index is down 17.5% YTD through June 23, 2025, on a 2.8x decline in its 12-month prospective absolute P/E ratio to 15.3x from 18.1x at the end of 2024.</li><li>Prospective earnings for the index are down 2.3% so far this year, but we note that it has outperformed the broader S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Index, which is down 6.3%.</li><li>Meanwhile, the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index is down 13.1% YTD, better than the WTR Consumer Products Index, despite relative earnings underperformance versus our index, as its prospective absolute P/E ratio compressed a lesser 1.2x to 15.3x from 16.5x at the end of 2024. </li></ul>

The WTR Consumer Products Index is down 17.5% YTD through June 23, 2025, on a 2.8x decline in its 12-month prospective absolute P/E ratio to 15.3x from 18.1x at the end of 2024.Prospective earnings for the index are down 2.3% so far this year, but we note that it has outperformed the broader S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Index, which is down 6.3%.Meanwhile, the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index is down 13.1% YTD, better than the WTR Consumer Products Index, despite relative earnings underperformance versus our index, as its prospective absolute P/E ratio compressed a lesser 1.2x to 15.3x from 16.5x at the end of 2024. 

WTR Consumer Products Index Lags S&P 600 YTD Despite Relative Earnings Outperformance

<ul><li>While our potential universe includes a broad range of branded consumer companies across the market capitalization, one corner of that universe that we have done a lot of work on over the years involves those companies utilizing a direct selling business model, which deploys a sales force of independent contractors to get their products in the hands of consumers.</li><li>The top trend we are monitoring for 2025 is the impact that the burgeoning market for GLP-1 drugs has on the weight loss stocks.</li><li>Two pure-play weight- loss names we monitor, MED and WW, have already been severely affected by the disruption caused by the GLP-1 drugs and have been on the defensive in recent years.</li></ul>

While our potential universe includes a broad range of branded consumer companies across the market capitalization, one corner of that universe that we have done a lot of work on over the years involves those companies utilizing a direct selling business model, which deploys a sales force of independent contractors to get their products in the hands of consumers.The top trend we are monitoring for 2025 is the impact that the burgeoning market for GLP-1 drugs has on the weight loss stocks.Two pure-play weight- loss names we monitor, MED and WW, have already been severely affected by the disruption caused by the GLP-1 drugs and have been on the defensive in recent years.

2025 Outlook: Focus Is on Top Line - November 13, 2024

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-world-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4600:1" rel="noopener">Best World International (BEST SP)</a> IFA considers the S$2.56 exit offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of its S$1.36-2.69 per share valuation range. </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval for the selective capital reduction (at least 75% of eligible shareholders) and delisting resolution (a majority holding not less than 75% in value).</li>
<li>The lack of activists, IFA supporting recommendations, and no competing offer suggest a done deal. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.8%.</li>
</ul>


The Best World International (BEST SP) IFA considers the S$2.56 exit offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of its S$1.36-2.69 per share valuation range. 
The key conditions are approval for the selective capital reduction (at least 75% of eligible shareholders) and delisting resolution (a majority holding not less than 75% in value).
The lack of activists, IFA supporting recommendations, and no competing offer suggest a done deal. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.8%.


Best World (BEST SP): EGM Vote on 19 July

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-world-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4600:1" rel="noopener">Best World International (BEST SP)</a> has disclosed a revised exit offer which has been declared final. The S$2.56 offer is a modest 2.4% premium to the previous S$2.50 offer. </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval for the selective capital reduction (at least 75% of eligible shareholders) and delisting resolution (a majority holding not less than 75% in value).</li>
<li>The revised offer remains underwhelming. However, the headcount test risk is lowering as retail seems resigned to accepting it. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.4%. </li>
</ul>



Best World International (BEST SP) has disclosed a revised exit offer which has been declared final. The S$2.56 offer is a modest 2.4% premium to the previous S$2.50 offer. 
The key conditions are approval for the selective capital reduction (at least 75% of eligible shareholders) and delisting resolution (a majority holding not less than 75% in value).
The revised offer remains underwhelming. However, the headcount test risk is lowering as retail seems resigned to accepting it. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.4%. 


Best World (BEST SP): Best and Final S$2.56 Offer

United States

Herbalife Ltd. is a global nutrition company that sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products as well as personal care products. The Company distributes and sells its products through a network of independent distributors, using the direct selling channel.

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Herbalife Ltd (HLF US)

Herbalife Ltd.: - Adapting to the Times; Well Positioned for Long-Term Growth

The company has differentiated itself in its ability to successfully change with the times and capitalize on the shifting market dynamics in a...

Water Tower Research

WTR Consumer Products Index Lags S&P 600 YTD Despite Relative Earnings Outperformance

The WTR Consumer Products Index is down 17.5% YTD through June 23, 2025, on a 2.8x decline in its 12-month prospective absolute P/E ratio to 15.3x...

Water Tower Research

2025 Outlook: Focus Is on Top Line - November 13, 2024

The top trend we are monitoring for 2025 is the impact that the burgeoning market for GLP-1 drugs has on the weight loss stocks.

Water Tower Research

Best World (BEST SP): EGM Vote on 19 July

The lack of activists, IFA supporting recommendations, and no competing offer suggest a done deal. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.8%.

Arun George

Best World (BEST SP): Best and Final S$2.56 Offer

The revised offer remains underwhelming. However, the headcount test risk is lowering as retail seems resigned to accepting it. At the last close,...

Arun George

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