Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
China’s luxury market last year failed to recover to 2021 levels amid a slowdown in economic growth and as more consumers made purchases overseas, but a modest pick-up from the previous 12 months has inspired optimism among major luxury houses, according to a new report and brand forecasts.
</li>
<li>
The sector grew 12% year-on-year in 2023, indicating a recovery from the previous year’s pandemic-induced decline, consultancy Bain &amp; Co. Inc.’s latest report about the market shows.
</li>
<li>
“The solid double-digit rebound is commendable, but China’s luxury market has not fully recovered to its 2021 levels,” said Bruno Lannes, a senior partner at Bain &amp; Co.
</li>
</ul>



China’s luxury market last year failed to recover to 2021 levels amid a slowdown in economic growth and as more consumers made purchases overseas, but a modest pick-up from the previous 12 months has inspired optimism among major luxury houses, according to a new report and brand forecasts.


The sector grew 12% year-on-year in 2023, indicating a recovery from the previous year’s pandemic-induced decline, consultancy Bain &amp; Co. Inc.’s latest report about the market shows.


“The solid double-digit rebound is commendable, but China’s luxury market has not fully recovered to its 2021 levels,” said Bruno Lannes, a senior partner at Bain &amp; Co.



China Luxury Market Still Lags Previous Heights Despite ‘Solid’ Gains in 2023 

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  </li>
<li>China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft</li>
<li>The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    </li>
</ul>


European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  
China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft
The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    


LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. </li>
<li>The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. </li>
<li>The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. 
The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. 
The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.


Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH):  Stability Amidst Overall Industry Weakness

France

Hermes International designs, produces, and distributes personal luxury accessories and apparel.  The Company operates a chain of boutiques under the Hermes name that sells items such as leather, scarves, men's clothes, ties, women's fashions, perfume, watches, stationery, shoes, hats, gloves, and jewelry.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hermes International (RMS FP)

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

China Luxury Market Still Lags Previous Heights Despite ‘Solid’ Gains in 2023

China’s luxury market last year failed to recover to 2021 levels amid a slowdown in economic growth and as more consumers made purchases overseas,...

Caixin Global

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH): Stability Amidst Overall Industry Weakness

Kweichow Moutai reports 17% increase in sales and net profit for FY23. Attractive valuation offers potential 15% return through earnings growth...

Steve

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

China Luxury Market Still Lags Previous Heights Despite ‘Solid’ Gains in 2023

China’s luxury market last year failed to recover to 2021 levels amid a slowdown in economic growth and as more consumers made purchases overseas,...

Caixin Global

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

​European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH): Stability Amidst Overall Industry Weakness

​Kweichow Moutai reports 17% increase in sales and net profit for FY23. Attractive valuation offers potential 15% return through earnings growth...

Steve

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Kweichow Moutai reports 17% increase in sales and net profit for FY23. Attractive valuation offers potential 15% return through earnings growth...