Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indian automobile sector is at a critical juncture, with recent GST rate rationalization and the imminent 8th Pay Commission for government employees converging to create a powerful demand stimulus.</li>
<li>These policy-driven catalysts are directly addressing long-standing affordability issues, particularly in the entry-level passenger vehicle and two-wheeler segments, positioning the industry for a multi-year cyclical upswing.</li>
<li>While challenges remain, the clear legislative support and improving macroeconomic environment suggest a significant demand revival, making a fresh look at India's auto OEMs a necessity for investors.</li>
</ul>


The Indian automobile sector is at a critical juncture, with recent GST rate rationalization and the imminent 8th Pay Commission for government employees converging to create a powerful demand stimulus.
These policy-driven catalysts are directly addressing long-standing affordability issues, particularly in the entry-level passenger vehicle and two-wheeler segments, positioning the industry for a multi-year cyclical upswing.
While challenges remain, the clear legislative support and improving macroeconomic environment suggest a significant demand revival, making a fresh look at India's auto OEMs a necessity for investors.


Thematic Report on India’s Auto Boom: Is Policy the New Fuel Igniting a Cyclical Revival?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>India’s GST 2.0 reform slashes tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare while exempting insurance and education.</li>
<li>The move could accelerate consumption, especially in rural India, but risks straining government revenues and widening fiscal deficits.</li>
<li>If implemented smoothly, GST 2.0 may drive a multi-sector consumption upcycle, though revenue trade-offs and uneven pass-through pose risks.</li>
</ul>


India’s GST 2.0 reform slashes tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare while exempting insurance and education.
The move could accelerate consumption, especially in rural India, but risks straining government revenues and widening fiscal deficits.
If implemented smoothly, GST 2.0 may drive a multi-sector consumption upcycle, though revenue trade-offs and uneven pass-through pose risks.


Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

<ul>
<li>The GST Council has approved rate cuts , lowering from 28-29% to 18% for 2Ws (&lt;350cc), 3Ws, CVs, tractors and small PVs, while larger cars move to 40% from 43-50%. 
</li>
<li>
Price cuts of 2–9% in mass-market vehicles could spur demand just as rural sentiment, interest rates, and fiscal transfers turn supportive, creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.</li>
<li>The rationalization removes structural distortions, improves affordability, and positions the festive season as a turning point for sector volumes and improved margins, though premium bikes and fleet operators face headwinds.</li>
</ul>


The GST Council has approved rate cuts , lowering from 28-29% to 18% for 2Ws (&lt;350cc), 3Ws, CVs, tractors and small PVs, while larger cars move to 40% from 43-50%. 


Price cuts of 2–9% in mass-market vehicles could spur demand just as rural sentiment, interest rates, and fiscal transfers turn supportive, creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.
The rationalization removes structural distortions, improves affordability, and positions the festive season as a turning point for sector volumes and improved margins, though premium bikes and fleet operators face headwinds.


GST Reform in Indian Auto Sector: Demand Revival Meets Margin Expansion Ahead of Festive Surge.

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will join both the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>


September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report on India’s Auto Boom: Is Policy the New Fuel Igniting a Cyclical Revival?

Recent policy changes in India, including GST rate rationalization and the 8th Pay Commission, are expected to boost demand in the automobile...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.

Sudarshan Bhandari

GST Reform in Indian Auto Sector: Demand Revival Meets Margin Expansion Ahead of Festive Surge.

GST Council approves rate cuts, boosting demand for mass-market vehicles and creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report on India’s Auto Boom: Is Policy the New Fuel Igniting a Cyclical Revival?

​Recent policy changes in India, including GST rate rationalization and the 8th Pay Commission, are expected to boost demand in the automobile...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

​India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.

Sudarshan Bhandari

GST Reform in Indian Auto Sector: Demand Revival Meets Margin Expansion Ahead of Festive Surge.

​GST Council approves rate cuts, boosting demand for mass-market vehicles and creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

Recent policy changes in India, including GST rate rationalization and the 8th Pay Commission, are expected to boost demand in the automobile...

India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.

GST Council approves rate cuts, boosting demand for mass-market vehicles and creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.