Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> being included in the index, while either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.
There is a high probability of Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) being included in the index, while either Shree Cement (SRCM IN) or Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) will be deleted.
The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Operationally in-line results: Hero Moto reported revenue of Rs74.2bn, which was in line with our estimate. ASP stood at Rs62.4k/vehicle.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Attractive valuation amid 2W recovery and EV opportunity: We value Hero Moto at 15x FY24E EPS and assign Hero Fincorp/Ather Rs96/Rs200 per share value to arrive at a TP of Rs3,161.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>We are baking in EPS AGR of 26% over FY22-24E, led by 14% CAGR growth in volume and 150bps margin expansion.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Operationally in-line results: Hero Moto reported revenue of Rs74.2bn, which was in line with our estimate. ASP stood at Rs62.4k/vehicle.Attractive valuation amid 2W recovery and EV opportunity: We value Hero Moto at 15x FY24E EPS and assign Hero Fincorp/Ather Rs96/Rs200 per share value to arrive at a TP of Rs3,161.We are baking in EPS AGR of 26% over FY22-24E, led by 14% CAGR growth in volume and 150bps margin expansion.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero MotoCorp - Attractive Valuation, 2W Upcycle & EV Transition to Drive Rerating

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hero Motorcorp Ltd. (HMCL) Q4FY22 performance was broadly in line with our estimates with EBITDA coming in lower than expected</li><li>We maintain a BUY rating on the stock given its reasonable valuations and revise our TP to Rs 3,000/share (Rs 3,150 earlier) to factor in near-term headwinds for the 2W industry</li><li>We value the stock at 15x FY24E EPS, implying a 24% upside from the CMP.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Hero Motorcorp Ltd. (HMCL) Q4FY22 performance was broadly in line with our estimates with EBITDA coming in lower than expectedWe maintain a BUY rating on the stock given its reasonable valuations and revise our TP to Rs 3,000/share (Rs 3,150 earlier) to factor in near-term headwinds for the 2W industryWe value the stock at 15x FY24E EPS, implying a 24% upside from the CMP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero Motocorp: EBITDA Miss; Growth Outlook Remains Positive

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>PVs – supply chain constraints to persist; demand holding strong: We expect PV volume to be slightly lower on MoM basis due to supply<br>side issues and higher monthly base.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>2Ws – demand revival remains muted: Domestic 2W dispatches are expected to improve on MoM basis, albeit at a slower pace, led by opening up of schools &amp; offices, beginning of marriage season and improving rural economics.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Tractors – moderating growth on a high base: We expect tractor demand to ease due to a high base.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PVs – supply chain constraints to persist; demand holding strong: We expect PV volume to be slightly lower on MoM basis due to supply side issues and higher monthly base.2Ws – demand revival remains muted: Domestic 2W dispatches are expected to improve on MoM basis, albeit at a slower pace, led by opening up of schools &amp; offices, beginning of marriage season and improving rural economics.Tractors – moderating growth on a high base: We expect tractor demand to ease due to a high base.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Automobile Sales Estimates – 2Ws Rising from Dust; Demand Outlook for PVs and CVs Positive

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected rural revival.</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>We factor in 17/16/18% volume CAGRs for 2Ws/PVs/CVs over FY22-24E.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Key sectoral trends to watch out for include: (1) partial reversal in shift in mix towards premium-end vehicles as discretionary consumption from the average middle class consumer rebounds, with a pick-up in GDP; (2) EV penetration in scooters reaching 25% by FY25E and large OEMs emerging as dominant players; (3) current geopolitical conflict driving higher costs in the near term.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected rural revival.We factor in 17/16/18% volume CAGRs for 2Ws/PVs/CVs over FY22-24E.Key sectoral trends to watch out for include: (1) partial reversal in shift in mix towards premium-end vehicles as discretionary consumption from the average middle class consumer rebounds, with a pick-up in GDP; (2) EV penetration in scooters reaching 25% by FY25E and large OEMs emerging as dominant players; (3) current geopolitical conflict driving higher costs in the near term.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

Adani Enterprises is a high probability add to the NIFTY50 in Sep. Shree Cement is the current delete, though Hero Motocorp is close. There will be...

Brian Freitas

Hero MotoCorp - Attractive Valuation, 2W Upcycle & EV Transition to Drive Rerating

Hero MotoCorp (Hero) reported revenue of Rs74.2bn, which was in line with our estimate. Volume declined by 24% YoY while realization at Rs62.4k...

Nirmal Bang

Hero Motocorp: EBITDA Miss; Growth Outlook Remains Positive

We maintain a BUY rating on the stock given its reasonable valuations and revise our TP to Rs 3,000/share (Rs 3,150 earlier) to factor in...

Axis Direct

Automobile Sales Estimates – 2Ws Rising from Dust; Demand Outlook for PVs and CVs Positive

Based on our channel checks, we saw some improvement in 2W demand in April’22 while demand in CV and PV segments continued to remain robust.

Nirmal Bang

Autos: Time to relook

We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected...

HDFC Securities

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