Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Performance, Exports &amp; Premiumization, Commodity Inflation, Price Increases, Supply Chains and Margins, New Launches, EV, Demand  Environment &amp; Outlook.

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of TVS Motor (TVSL IN) / Eicher Motors (EIM IN) / Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) / Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Performance, Exports &amp; Premiumization, Commodity Inflation, Price Increases, Supply Chains and Margins, New Launches, EV, Demand  Environment &amp; Outlook.

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India 2Ws - TVS Motor / Eicher / Bajaj Auto/ Hero Motocorp

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ather Energy, an Indian electric-scooter manufacturer, will unveil its first EL-platform model on 29 August, entering the INR 1-1.25 lakh mass-market segment before end-2026 commercialisation.</li>
<li>Steel unibody, simpler transmission, 15% faster assembly and 10,000-km service intervals target affordability and ownership friction, expanding volumes with limited cannibalisation of Rizta and 450.</li>
<li>Ather’s product gap is narrowing, but Factory 3.0’s Q3 FY27 start, five-lakh capacity, launch-to-delivery timing, quality, distribution throughput and margin retention now determine EBITDA breakeven.</li>
</ul>


Ather Energy, an Indian electric-scooter manufacturer, will unveil its first EL-platform model on 29 August, entering the INR 1-1.25 lakh mass-market segment before end-2026 commercialisation.
Steel unibody, simpler transmission, 15% faster assembly and 10,000-km service intervals target affordability and ownership friction, expanding volumes with limited cannibalisation of Rizta and 450.
Ather’s product gap is narrowing, but Factory 3.0’s Q3 FY27 start, five-lakh capacity, launch-to-delivery timing, quality, distribution throughput and margin retention now determine EBITDA breakeven.


Ather Energy: EL Platform Opens the Next Phase of Mass-Market Growth

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

EM Autos are the 10th largest industry group weight among active EM managers, with average weights of 1.55%.  The more interesting metric however, is the extent to which Autos have become one of the largest industry level underweights across global EM.  The increased underweight has almost exclusively been driven by two stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK</a>, with both seeing benchmark weights rise on the back of strong price increases.Such outright volatility has created a challenge for active managers who are benchmarked to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.   Namely, how do you position yourself in a prominent index component that rises 900% in the space of 12 months?  The temptation might be to add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> to a portfolio to dampen some of that benchmark risk, and indeed we have seen that happening among managers with low active shares.However, so far, high active managers have remained on the sidelines, sticking instead with more established autos stocks of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>.  Therefore, there is very little peer group risk in avoiding either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> .  In fact, if a high active manager decides to invest in either stock, it will represent an out-of-consensus long compared to the majority of your active peers.

EM Autos are the 10th largest industry group weight among active EM managers, with average weights of 1.55%.  The more interesting metric however, is the extent to which Autos have become one of the largest industry level underweights across global EM.  The increased underweight has almost exclusively been driven by two stocks, NIO Inc (NIO US) and BYD (1211 HK, with both seeing benchmark weights rise on the back of strong price increases.Such outright volatility has created a challenge for active managers who are benchmarked to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.   Namely, how do you position yourself in a prominent index component that rises 900% in the space of 12 months?  The temptation might be to add NIO Inc (NIO US) to a portfolio to dampen some of that benchmark risk, and indeed we have seen that happening among managers with low active shares.However, so far, high active managers have remained on the sidelines, sticking instead with more established autos stocks of Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) , Geely Auto (175 HK) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN).  Therefore, there is very little peer group risk in avoiding either NIO Inc (NIO US) or BYD (1211 HK) .  In fact, if a high active manager decides to invest in either stock, it will represent an out-of-consensus long compared to the majority of your active peers.

EM Autos Underweight:  Ignore Benchmark Risk and Focus on Peers

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this Insight, we did not do any phone calls, no travel, no channel checks. These insights are purely based on first-degree personal interactions and observations. While the data is relevant to Vadodara, anecdotal evidence is gathered from Pune, Indore, Mumbai. 
While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharashtra, the situation is no better in rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out to be a battle for survival! Welcome to the Jungle.

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this Insight, we did not do any phone calls, no travel, no channel checks. These insights are purely based on first-degree personal interactions and observations. While the data is relevant to Vadodara, anecdotal evidence is gathered from Pune, Indore, Mumbai. 
While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharashtra, the situation is no better in rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out to be a battle for survival! Welcome to the Jungle. 

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index and 1 change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is estimated at just over US$2bn and there are 18 stocks that have over 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
<li>A number of the inclusions will have inflows from global and local passive trackers over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There are 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index and 1 change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.
The round-trip trade across both indices is estimated at just over US$2bn and there are 18 stocks that have over 1x ADV to trade from passives.
A number of the inclusions will have inflows from global and local passive trackers over the next few months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India 2Ws - TVS Motor / Eicher / Bajaj Auto/ Hero Motocorp

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of TVS Motor / Eicher Motors / Bajaj Auto / Hero Motocorp

Pranav Bhavsar

Ather Energy: EL Platform Opens the Next Phase of Mass-Market Growth

Ather Energy to unveil new electric scooter model in mass-market segment, focusing on affordability and ownership experience to drive volume...

Sudarshan Bhandari

EM Autos Underweight: Ignore Benchmark Risk and Focus on Peers

EM Autos have become one of the largest industry level underweights across global EM. The increased underweight has almost exclusively been driven...

Steven Holden

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharastra, the situation is no better in the rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

The deletes have outperformed the adds by 4.7% since the announcement of the changes. The passives trade at the close today and those flows could...

Brian Freitas

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The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India 2Ws - TVS Motor / Eicher / Bajaj Auto/ Hero Motocorp

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of TVS Motor / Eicher Motors / Bajaj Auto / Hero Motocorp

Pranav Bhavsar

Ather Energy: EL Platform Opens the Next Phase of Mass-Market Growth

​Ather Energy to unveil new electric scooter model in mass-market segment, focusing on affordability and ownership experience to drive volume...

Sudarshan Bhandari

EM Autos Underweight: Ignore Benchmark Risk and Focus on Peers

EM Autos have become one of the largest industry level underweights across global EM. The increased underweight has almost exclusively been driven...

Steven Holden

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharastra, the situation is no better in the rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

The deletes have outperformed the adds by 4.7% since the announcement of the changes. The passives trade at the close today and those flows could...

Brian Freitas

Ather Energy to unveil new electric scooter model in mass-market segment, focusing on affordability and ownership experience to drive volume...