Investment Advisor, Upslope Capital Management

Upslope Capital Management

Investment Advisor

Investment advisor for Upslope Partners Fund, LP, a global long/short equity hedge fund.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>While markets are ever-changing, the pace has felt much faster over the last few years. Two related shifts stand out.</li><li>First, gambling – on sports, geopolitics, and stocks/options – is absolutely everywhere. This is a big and unfortunate cultural shift. Second, AI is also everywhere – particularly on the desktops of buyside analysts and PMs.</li><li>I suspect this technological shift is part of a not-so-virtuous cycle with the cultural shift towards gambling. A couple years ago legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller noted how he made a quick bet on Argentinian stocks with an assist from AI</li></ul>

While markets are ever-changing, the pace has felt much faster over the last few years. Two related shifts stand out.First, gambling – on sports, geopolitics, and stocks/options – is absolutely everywhere. This is a big and unfortunate cultural shift. Second, AI is also everywhere – particularly on the desktops of buyside analysts and PMs.I suspect this technological shift is part of a not-so-virtuous cycle with the cultural shift towards gambling. A couple years ago legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller noted how he made a quick bet on Argentinian stocks with an assist from AI

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter 2025-Q4 Update

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>The Hershey Company's recent earnings call for the third quarter of 2025 offered insight into the company's current performance and future projections.</li><li>The company reported stable growth across its segments, with President and CEO Kirk Tanner emphasizing balanced momentum across the entire portfolio.</li><li>This stability positions Hershey well as it moves into 2026, where the company aims to align with its long-term growth algorithm of 2% to 4% revenue increase and potential upside on earnings per share (EPS).</li></ul>

The Hershey Company's recent earnings call for the third quarter of 2025 offered insight into the company's current performance and future projections.The company reported stable growth across its segments, with President and CEO Kirk Tanner emphasizing balanced momentum across the entire portfolio.This stability positions Hershey well as it moves into 2026, where the company aims to align with its long-term growth algorithm of 2% to 4% revenue increase and potential upside on earnings per share (EPS).

Hershey’s Next Move: Trying To Balance Health, Hedging, & Hunger for Growth!

Podcast hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, Real Conversations

Real Conversations

Podcast hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough

Hedgeye is an investment research and financial media company founded in 2008. Our core principles are transparency, accountability and trust. Hedgeye’s Real Conversations series, hosted by CEO Keith McCullough, brings together the brightest minds in the business to cut through the noise and discuss the financial market moves that actually matter.LEGALThe opinions expressed in Hedgeye Real Conversations are those of the individual speaking and not of Hedgeye, and should not be construed as specific investment advice. Hedgeye® is a registered trademark. All Hedegye Real Conversations are the intellectual property of Hedgeye. All rights reserved.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Russell was down almost a full percent last week, but consumer staples, MLPS, and shipping performed well</li><li>Domino's reported slightly lower earnings and showed signs of global headwinds, momentum slowing</li><li>China looks like a good long bias opportunity for the second half of 2024, while consumer staples are poorly positioned for reaccelerating inflation</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Russell was down almost a full percent last week, but consumer staples, MLPS, and shipping performed wellDomino's reported slightly lower earnings and showed signs of global headwinds, momentum slowingChina looks like a good long bias opportunity for the second half of 2024, while consumer staples are poorly positioned for reaccelerating inflationThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
<li>This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.</li>
<li>The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.
This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.
The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.


Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows.  Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an aggressive slump after the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.The spread between Consumer Discretionary weights and Consumer Staples weights in active Global portfolios is close to it's all-time wides, but is turning lower after peaking in April this this year.What stands out in our data is the cutting back of Consumer Staples allocations by Growth investors, with a number of high profile stocks cut from Aggressive Growth portfolios since last 2019 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reckitt-benckiser-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22105:1" rel="noopener">Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/colgate-palmolive-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15093:1" rel="noopener">Colgate Palmolive Co (CL US),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anheuser-busch-inbev-sa-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:865:1" rel="noopener">Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB)</a> )For the Consumer Staples sector to see a turnaround, perhaps growth, or at least the perception of growth needs to return for these investors.

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows.  Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an aggressive slump after the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.The spread between Consumer Discretionary weights and Consumer Staples weights in active Global portfolios is close to it's all-time wides, but is turning lower after peaking in April this this year.What stands out in our data is the cutting back of Consumer Staples allocations by Growth investors, with a number of high profile stocks cut from Aggressive Growth portfolios since last 2019 (Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN), Colgate Palmolive Co (CL US),Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB) )For the Consumer Staples sector to see a turnaround, perhaps growth, or at least the perception of growth needs to return for these investors.

Global Consumer Staples: Allocations at Rock Bottom as Growth Investors Flee

United States

The Hershey Company manufactures chocolate and sugar confectionery products. The Company's principal products include chocolate and sugar confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products; and pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings and beverages.

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Hershey Co/The (HSY US)

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter 2025-Q4 Update

While markets are ever-changing, the pace has felt much faster over the last few years. Two related shifts stand out. First, gambling – on sports,...

Upslope Capital Management

Hershey’s Next Move: Trying To Balance Health, Hedging, & Hunger for Growth!

The Hershey Company's recent earnings call for the third quarter of 2025 offered insight into the company's current performance and future...

Baptista Research

The Call @ Hedgeye | February 26, 2024

Last week saw a mixed market with Russell down almost 1%, consumer staples and MLPs performing well, Howard's cannabis MSOs showing strength,...

Real Conversations

Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

We still see the market as being in pullback mode; the $SPX, $QQQ $NDX, and $IWM $RUT are all testing 50-day MA support, the first big area of...

Vermilion Research

Global Consumer Staples: Allocations at Rock Bottom as Growth Investors Flee

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows. Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an...

Steven Holden

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